Chapter 74 Volume 3 Chapter 1 Desert Regions and Balkan Countries

1941 was an eventful year A solid foundation The key to the war False dawn in the desert My estimate of the war on January 6 The strong Benghazi flank The Abyssinian campaign Spain talks Vichy's ambiguous attitude Luftwaffe in Threat of Sicily Danger of being overrun in the Balkans Necessity of support for Greece Our main task Hitler's New Year's message He wrote to Mussolini on December 31, 1940 Our opinion of Spain is unmistakable In line with Hitler's conclusions on Russia and Africa Mr. Eden's anxiety Necessity to limit the desert march General Smuts's instructions Wavell to Athens I telegraphed Wavell on 26th January I addressed History on 12th January Reply from General Mo Zi.

Looking back on the tumultuous years of the war, I cannot think of a time when, as in the first half of 1941, the fighting was so intense and so many problems came together, or followed one another, that more directly troubled me and my colleagues .Every year the scale of events increases, but the decisions that must be made are no more difficult.In 1942 we suffered an even greater military calamity, but by then we were no longer isolated and our destiny was united with that of the Great Alliance.Not one part of our problems in 1941 was solved in connection with other problems.Supplies allocated to one battlefield must be taken from another.Using power here means risking danger there.Our material resources are extremely limited.The attitude of more than a dozen powerful countries is still undecided whether they are friendly, wait and see, or have the possibility of hostility.At home we had to deal with submarine warfare, the threat of enemy invasion, and the continual blitzkrieg; in the Middle East we had to fight a series of campaigns; and third, we had to try to open a front against Germany in the Balkans.For a long time before, we had to fight alone.After a rough ride, we had to fight the rapids again.It is one of the difficulties of this account that, in our individual efforts, we daily struggle and do our duty not to drown in the rapids, while events of far greater importance relentlessly advance. It's the imbalance between the two.

At last we have a firm footing in Great Britain.I am sure that the German attempt to attack our country in 1941 would not be in our favour, provided we maintain a high level of security and the necessary forces at home.Compared with 1940, the strength of the Luftwaffe on various battlefields has hardly increased; while our domestic fighter squadrons have expanded from fifty-one to seventy-eight, and bomber squadrons have expanded from twenty-seven to forty-five.The Germans did not win the air battle of 1940.It seemed that they had no hope of winning in 1941 either.Our homeland army has been greatly strengthened.From September 1940 to September 1941, the number had increased from 26 active-duty divisions to 34 active-duty divisions, and there were five armored divisions.

Coupled with the fact that the army has been trained and mature, the weapons they use have also greatly increased.The National Guard had grown from one million to one and a half million men, and they were all guns.Great improvements were made in troop numbers, mobility, equipment, training, organization, and fortification.Of course, in order to invade our country, Hitler needed to have more soldiers than needed at all times.To conquer us, he would need to send at least a million soldiers and the necessary provisions across the English Channel.By 1941 he may have a large number, if not a sufficient number of landing craft, but, with our superior air and naval forces, enough to control the air and sea, we are confident that we have the capability to destroy or severely damage the German invasion fleet.All the arguments on which we relied in 1940 are therefore now incomparably stronger.As long as we do not let our guard down, or slash our own defenses, the War Cabinet and the Chiefs of Staff will have nothing to worry about.

Although our American friends, some of whom had been visiting us with generals, were apprehensive about our situation, and the general opinion of the world was that a German attack on Britain was quite probable, we ourselves boldly made the best use of our available ships. Capable of transporting all troops overseas for offensive operations in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.This was the key to our final victory, and its first major events began in 1941. In war, armies must fight.Africa is the only continent where we can deal with our enemies on land.The defense of Egypt and the Isle of Malta was our duty, and the destruction of the Italian Empire the first spoil we could gain.Britain resists the swaggering Axis countries in the Middle East, and our attempt to unite the Balkan countries and Turkey against the enemy is the theme and clue of our current narrative.

The victories in the desert region [1] brought an atmosphere of joy to the first few days of the year.Bardia was captured on January 5, and more than 40,000 defenders surrendered.It appears that Tobruk is within our grasp.Sure enough, it was captured within two weeks, taking nearly 30,000 prisoners.On the 19th, we recovered Kassala in Sudan.On the 20th, entered the Italian colony of Eritrea.A few days later, Bixia, the base of the enemy's military station, was captured.On the 20th, Emperor Haile Selassie returned to Abyssinia.During this period, however, we have had repeated reports of German movements and preparations for the Balkan campaign.I presented my estimate of the overall situation to the Chiefs of Staff of the three services, and they generally agreed with me.

【1】Refers to the desert area of ​​Libya in North Africa.translator Prime Minister to General Ismay, Transfer to the Chiefs of Staff Committee January 6, 1941 one 1. The rapid destruction of the Italian armed forces in Northeast Africa was the main objective of our overseas operations in the first months of 1941.Once the Italian army in Cyrenaica is destroyed, the Nile Army can take on other tasks.As for what tasks it will take on, we cannot say yet. 2. When Bardia is captured, we can establish an advance base there for the capture of Tobruk.With Bardia and Tobruk we can almost completely abandon land traffic to Alexandria, and rely on sea transport to support our continued westward advance.Plans should now be drawn up for making the most of Tobruk.

3. There is no need for too many attacking troops stationed west of Bardia and Tobruk. The 2nd and 7th British Armored Divisions, the 6th Australian Division, the New Zealand Brigade which will soon be converted into a division, and perhaps one or two British brigades, totaling no more than 40,000 to 45,000 men, would be sufficient to subdue the Italians Remnants of resistance and take Benghazi.The distance along the coastal road from Tobruk to Benghazi is only over 250 miles, while from Alexandria to Tobruk is about 370 miles.Therefore, once Tobruk is built as a base and as the starting point of our land transportation, the land transportation will not be more tense than it is now, and it can be dispatched from Tobruk again. The status of Tobruk is the same as that of Alexander in the past. status, and only need to maintain a small but sufficient attacking force.With the capture of Benghazi, the present phase of the Libyan campaign came to an end.

4. The question is: How long will it take?Considering the heavy loss of the best Italian troops, vehicles and equipment, etc., and the fact that we have command of the sea, the collapse of Cyrenaica is just around the corner.Indeed, everything can change rapidly at any time, so there is a clear need to do so as quickly as possible.However, if Benghazi and its eastern regions are successfully occupied by our army within three months and used as an army and naval base, our overall strategic needs will be met. 5. Therefore, the above-mentioned military operations in Libya did not in any way affect the simultaneous campaign against the Italians in Abyssinia.General Wavell had brought back the 4th Indian Division.The 5th Indian Division was also available at any time, so it was possible to carry out the operational plan to attack Kassala and start an uprising more widely in Abyssinia, while Kenyan forces could also advance north along Lake Rudolph .The cut off Italian garrison in Abyssinia may at any moment propose to us for an armistice.The support of this army must have been due to the hope that the Italians would seize the Nile Delta and the Suez Canal, thereby restoring communications and bringing supplies by the Nile and the Red Sea.Those hopes have been dashed.On the other hand, the vastness of Abyssinia, the lack of communications of all kinds, especially by sea, and the difficulty of maintaining a large army might have delayed them from time to time.But it was not unreasonable to hope that the Italian forces in Abyssinia would capitulate or be routed before the end of April.

6. When this becomes apparent, the whole elite army in Kenya, and in Sudan and Abyssinia, can be moved northward.Thereafter, these units will become a reserve army for operations in the Eastern Mediterranean region.If we assume that the total strength of the troops currently stationed in the Middle East is about 370,000 (including W. S. [1] No. 5 and No. 6 convoys), we can reasonably expect that in Abyss After the necessary garrison and security forces have been stationed in Nigeria, Cyrenaica, Egypt, and Palestine, the Nile Valley will have an army equivalent to ten divisions. .Thus, the twelve divisions could be transferred elsewhere by the end of April (provided there were no new disturbances).

【1】W‧S‧ is the abbreviation of Winstons Specials (Winstons Specials). For details, please refer to page 528 of the original volume of the second volume of this book.translator two 7. It is the most dangerous and uncertain venture, especially at this time, for the Germans to forcibly pass through Spain to attack the Strait of Gibraltar against the will of the Spanish people and government.With so many disaffected peoples already to be subdued by Hitler, it is not surprising that he would not easily dare to offend Spain.Of course, with the permission of the Spanish government, the Germans could easily control Lisbon and the forts of Algeciras and Ceuta.Captain Hillgarth (our Naval Attaché in Madrid), who had lived in Spain for a long time, had recently exchanged views with our Ambassador in Spain.According to him, the Spanish government was less and less likely to allow Hitler to cheat or join the war against me.General Wavell's victory in Libya has played and will play an important part in Spanish public opinion.Had the Germans not been allowed, they would not have attempted to force their way across Spain before April.From every point of view, this delay works to our advantage.We were able to use Gibraltar; we had time for our troops in the Middle East to complete their mission there, and that force could be transferred elsewhere later.And most importantly: events in France and Vichy have the potential to turn around for the better. 8. We should now be extremely cautious not to cause accidents in Spain, or to turn the Spanish government more hostile to us than it is at present, or to provoke Herr Hitler to take a drastic course against Spain.All of these are conjectures, so it's hard to be sure.But the fact that Hitler did not cross Spain to attack Gibraltar, as we feared, when political and climatic conditions were more favorable to him, constitutes a plausible and convincing assumption in the main: Anything adventurous, at least until spring. three 9. The possibility that the German adventure in Spain would have to be postponed until spring raised hopes that the Vichy government, under German pressure or actual aggression, might resume operations in North Africa, or authorize General Weygand to do so.If this happens before Gibraltar falls into German hands, we have a good chance of resisting German attempts to seize Gibraltar indefinitely.We can move troops to Morocco via Atlantic ports; we can use French air bases in North Africa.The whole situation in the Mediterranean region will completely change in our favour.The remaining Italian forces in Tripoli would not hold water.We are likely to open the Mediterranean sea route and transport military supplies and reinforcements to the Middle East. 10. Therefore, we deem it appropriate to assure Marshal Pétain and General Weygand that from the moment they feel capable of taking that extremely important step which we ardently hope for, we will have an army of up to six divisions, and an air force of adequate strength. and the necessary navy to assist them.We have also made them feel the danger of waiting until the Germans have passed through Spain and controlled the Straits of Gibraltar and northern Morocco.How the Vichy government will act, we can only wait and see.In the meantime, we shall impose a blockade on France intermittently at the convenience of the Navy.So it's done partly to be principled and partly to create a smoke screen of Anglo-French friction, especially so that the Vichy government doesn't feel that if they have nothing to do, they won't let them on our side alone make life difficult for.Events in France will develop rapidly, to our advantage.Herr Hitler probably understood this.However, it is possible to: Events in France reached their climax before any decisive event in Spain. Four 11. We should still expect that Hitler is about to attack on a grand scale, and that he is now making large-scale preparations with the German tenacity.Of course, he could easily go south via Italy and establish an air force in Sicily.Perhaps this work has already been done. Ask the Chiefs of Staff to study the influx (operation plan for the occupation of Sicily) urgently. It is not difficult to imagine that this plan should be carried out urgently.However, there is currently no reason to see inflow operations planning ahead of operations in Libya, in any case, before the capture of Tobruk and the establishment of a solid forward base there, if not further west, to protect Egypt , certainly cannot do so. five 12. The above circumstances show that it is in our best interests to postpone until spring any German advance into the Balkans.It is for this reason that we should assume that Germany may begin to act earlier.We have been greatly helped by the exploits of the Greek army.We give them only a paltry air aid, and they don't care about it.But if they encounter setbacks or impasse after they succeed, we should expect them to immediately demand more assistance.The only assistance we can give quickly is four or five more squadrons of air force from the Middle East, perhaps a few artillery regiments, and some or all of the tanks of the 2nd Armored Division; which has now arrived in Egypt and is calmly there to rectify. The Furious had arrived at Takoradi, and the arrival of forty Tornadoes and other aircraft would soon give Vice Admiral Longmore's strength well beyond a hundred Tornados.He suffered exceptionally few losses in this attack.His move to withdraw air units from Aden and Sudan proved correct.With Tobruk likely to be captured by us in the near future, it seems likely that Greece should be provided with a strong air force reinforcement, which should include some squadrons of Tornado fighters.Have runways at Greek airports been lengthened to accommodate Tornados?Are the airfields on Crete adequately built for such aircraft to land mid-way?When the time comes, the need for these airfields may be so great that everything must be ready now.We also had to figure out how much time and manpower it would take to transfer the 2nd Armored Division to the port of Piraeus. Thirteen. All estimates show that if the Greek army fails to capture Vlora, the consequences will be disastrous.General Wavell may be able to take Cyrenaica and gain a foothold at Benghazi, relying only on the forces he presently employs in the western desert, although his air force has been reduced; It would not be right to dismay the Greeks, or even induce them to make a separate peace with Italy, by taking the opportunity of Laura.Therefore, we should expect that after the capture of Tobruk, the Nile Army may encounter serious difficulties in continuing its westward advance.I see very clearly that after securing the west side of Egypt, Greece should be first aided. six 14. Yugoslavia's attitude is likely to be determined by our support to Greece and the fate of the Greek army's advance to Vlora.Although it is impossible for us to make any conclusions, it is more reasonable for the German army to enter the Black Sea via Romania, and then pass through their former ally Bulgaria and go directly to Salonika than to force through Yugoslavia.Frequent troop movements and more rumors than before seem to suggest this.Germany is clearly building up its forces and improving its direct access to southeastern Europe.We should take measures to ensure that Turkey enters the war when the enemy enters Bulgaria.If Yugoslavia stands firm and is not duped by its enemies, if Greek troops capture Vlora and hold their ground in Albania, if Turkey becomes an active ally of ours, then Russia's attitude may be favorably influenced.Anyone can see how a German advance into the Black Sea, or through Bulgaria into the Aegean, would be a disadvantage, indeed a mortal threat, to Russia.Fear alone was enough to keep the Russians from going to war.The establishment of a solid Allied front in the Balkans, together with the growing prestige of the British Navy, Air Force, and Air Force, might alleviate such fears, but we cannot count on this. seven 15. The last problem, but the one that governs all our operations, is the threat of enemy invasion, air warfare and its effect on production, and the serious pressure on our western ports and northwest lines of communication.Herr Hitler's desire to strangle or crush Great Britain is no doubt more pressing now than ever before.As long as the British air force grows stronger behind Hitler, and as long as he has to suppress the disgruntled and hungry peoples of all Europe, even if Hitler wages a major campaign in Eastern Europe, defeats Russia, conquers Ukraine, and enters the Caspian from the Black Sea, these No action, whether partly or wholly successful, can bring him a victorious peace.Therefore, the task of preventing invasion, maintaining our homeland food supply, and accelerating the production of armaments must not be hindered by any other object. Hitler also had his New Year's resolutions.It is interesting to compare his letter to Mussolini a week earlier with my estimate.With regard to the attitude of General Franco and Spain, our views obviously coincide. leader December 31, 1940 After examining the entire situation, I came to the following conclusions: 1. As far as the Western War itself is concerned, we have won.A great final effort was still to be made to defeat England.In order to determine the manner in which this is to be accomplished, we must weigh what factors have saved Great Britain from total collapse after our enhanced air and submarine offensives have had their effect. In this battle, after we have won the initial victory, Germany will need to make a major decision to finally attack the British Isles.The anti-aircraft defenses required to attack the concentrated forces of Britain, especially those huge supply depots, will be far greater than we originally estimated. 2. France.The French government has fired Laval from his post.The official reason they notified me was untrue.I have no doubt that the real reason was that General Weygand had made demands that amounted to blackmail from North Africa, and that the Vichy government would have risked losing North Africa if it resisted.I also think that there may have been an entire faction within the Vichy government who favored Weygand's policies, at least implicitly.I don't think Petain himself was disloyal, but I don't know what his sincerity is.All of this requires constant vigilance and close monitoring of events. Three Spain.Deeply troubled by the situation, which Franco believed to be deteriorating, Spain had refused to cooperate with the Axis powers.I'm afraid Franco is about to make the blunder of his life.I think it is extremely naive for him to accept raw materials and wheat from democracies as a payment for not going to war. The democracies will keep him in constant terror and war against him when he has exhausted his last grain of wheat. I regret all this for Spain, for on our part we have completed our preparations to cross the Spanish frontier on January 10 and attack Gibraltar in early February.I think, can succeed relatively quickly.The troops to be used in this operation are specially selected and trained.Once the Strait of Gibraltar falls into our hands, the danger of French defection in North and West Africa will be completely eliminated. I am therefore greatly disappointed by this decision of Franco's, which is not commensurate with the assistance we, the leader and myself, have given him in his distress.I still hope, little hope, that he will sense at the last minute the disastrous consequences of what he has done, and that he, if belatedly, will try to fight with us, and Our victory will determine his own destiny. 4. Bulgaria.Bulgaria is also reluctant to have a relationship with the Triple Alliance Treaty [1], and unwilling to take a clear attitude in its international relations.This was due to growing pressure from Soviet Russia on it.No one would have dared to exert such pressure on the King of Bulgaria if he had immediately adhered to our treaty.Worst of all, this power poisoned public opinion, which was not immune to the bad influence of communism. [1] The treaty signed in Berlin on September 27, 1940 by Germany, Italy, and Japan.translator 5. Undoubtedly, Hungary and Romania have taken the most pronounced positions in this conflict.General Antonescu has realized that the future of his regime, and even his own, depends on our victory.From this he draws clear and straightforward conclusions, which earn me all the more respect for him. Hungarians are no less loyal.Since December 13, Germany has been sending troops to Romania via Hungary.Hungary and Rumania have put their railway networks at my disposal, so that some German divisions can be moved quickly to urgent points.I cannot yet say much about the operational plans that are being planned, or that may be required, as they are being drawn up at this moment.In any event, our strength will be sufficient to preclude any threat of a counterattack from the flank. Leader, it is absolutely necessary to stabilize your line in Albania in order to contain at least some of the Greek and Anglo-Greek forces. 6. Yugoslavia.Yugoslavia is carefully buying time.If things go well, it may sign a non-aggression pact with us, but it now appears that it will not in any case cling to the Triple Alliance treaty.I do not expect to achieve much more until our military achievements improve our psychological tendencies. 7. Russia.If there is a danger of internal conflict in certain Balkan countries, it is necessary to anticipate its serious consequences and have ready means of preventing them in advance. I think that as long as Stalin is alive, Russia will not take any action against me, let alone we have not suffered serious setbacks ourselves.Leader, I think it is of the utmost importance that, as a prerequisite for the successful conclusion of this war, Germany should have an army strong enough to meet any eventuality in the East.The stronger this army appears to be, the less likely it is that we will use it to meet an unexpected danger.In addition to these general considerations, I would like to add one point: our present relations with the Soviet Union are very good.We are on the verge of a trade agreement that satisfies both sides, and hopefully resolves in a reasonable way those issues that still remain in contention between the two sides. In fact, we are still divided only on two issues concerning Finland and Constantinople.With regard to Finland, I don't see any fundamental difficulties, because we don't consider Finland basically our sphere of influence, and our only concern is that there is no second war in the region. By contrast, it is not in our interest to surrender Constantinople to Russia and Bulgaria to Bolshevism.Yet even on such issues, with good intentions, solutions can be found that avoid the worst and help achieve our desires.It would be easier if Moscow understood that no one could force us to accept an arrangement we found unsatisfactory. 8. Africa.Leader, I do not think that any large-scale counter-offensive can be launched at present in this theater of operations.It will take at least three to five months to prepare for such an action.We are now approaching the season of the year in which German armored forces cannot effectively fight.Because at such temperatures, we can't even use armored vehicles, unless special cooling equipment is installed.Armored vehicles cannot be used in long-distance tactical operations that require driving all day long. In this theater, the most decisive solution seems to be the addition of anti-tank weapons, even if it means that Italian units in other theaters will not get this special artillery. As I have said recently, I still believe that the most important thing is to use our air force to weaken the British naval position in the Mediterranean by all means, because the situation cannot be improved by using our ground forces in this theater. As for the rest, the leader, no important decision can be taken until March. 【１】 [1] "Hitler and Mussolini: Letters and Documents", p. 83. Mr. Eden was watching the dark clouds in the east. Foreign Secretary to Prime Minister January 6, 1941 On the occasion of Bardia's victory [1], please accept my respect and congratulations!I don't know if I can tamper with one of your famous sayings, never before have so many people handed over so much to so few. [1] The British army broke through the Bardia defense line on January 3, 1941. On the 5th, the Italian defenders of Bardia surrendered, and the British captured more than 30,000 Italian soldiers.translator However, the purpose of this memorandum is to call attention to an unsatisfactory region in the Balkans on an international scale.In the past few days, a large amount of information has been received from various sources that Germany is intensifying preparations in the Balkans with the aim of finally attacking Greece.The frequently mentioned date for the attack was early March, but I am convinced that the Germans must have tried to start early.I am not in a position to say whether military action against Thessaloniki via Bulgaria is possible at this time of year, but we can be sure that Germany will intervene violently to prevent the complete rout of the Italian army in Albania.We have received reports that the enemy has increased his air force to fight the Greeks, and General Papgos claims that his advance has been slowed down by this.The above scenario fits well with the German approach of establishing air superiority before any action can be taken on the ground. On the political front, the attitude of the Bulgarian government makes me very disturbed.Their current performance seems to be out of control.Their newspapers, increasingly under the domination of the Germans, were now little more than the sounding board of the Axis propaganda apparatus.Above all, don't let the Turks and Yugoslavs relax because of our victory in North Africa, and we're doing everything we can politically to ensure that.Please decide whether all these issues need to be submitted to the National Defense Committee for consideration. After reading this memo, I issued the following memo: Prime Minister to General Ismay, Transfer to the Chiefs of Staff Committee January 6, 1941 Please have a look at the attached memorandum from the Foreign Secretary.With the roads in good condition, it will obviously be necessary to pursue the Italians along the Libyan coast, but we will have to consider sending four or five additional squadrons of the Royal Air Force to Greece, and possibly part of the British 2nd Armored Division. At the present moment, I cannot look beyond Benghazi, and if Tobruk is captured by our army, the number of Italian troops east of Benghazi will be limited and by no means elite. Though by luck and valor we may gather the most desirable spoils relatively easily off the coast of Libya, the great importance of capturing Vlora and maintaining the Greek front must always be kept in mind. On January 8, the National Defense Committee agreed that in view of the possibility of an early German advance to Greece via Bulgaria, the first priority from a political point of view was to give Greece the greatest possible and immediate assistance possible.In addition, it was agreed that a decision should be made within forty-eight hours on the form and extent of our assistance to Greece.On the same day, I received the following telegram from General Smuts.This telegram was not drawn up in view of the memorandum I sent two days ago.He and I were then agreed by the Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces and the National Defense Committee, which strengthened my confidence. General Smuts to Prime Minister January 8, 1941 Because of the great victories in the Middle East, it is necessary for us to consider our future course. Wavell will soon take advantage of the victory and advance to Tobruk.Should he push forward?Tripoli was too far away.Even to Benghazi, its distance from the Egyptian border is equal to the distance from the Egyptian border to Alexandria.However, there may be valid reasons, naval or otherwise, for advancing to Benghazi.If there is no good or special reason, I think it should stop at Tobruk.Beyond Tobruk, there are dangers that need not be described.A suitable defensive force should be stationed in the fortified position of Tobruk, and the rest of the army should be withdrawn to Egypt and the Middle East; there needs a strong mobile force in case the enemy attacks us through the Balkan countries. 2. However, I would like to suggest that, at this stage, consideration should also be given to how to clarify the situation in Abyssinia.Capturing Abyssinia would have meant a fatal blow to Mussolini's prestige and fascist plunder.Italy may be forced to withdraw from the war, and the situation in the entire Mediterranean may change.Germany would again be isolated and possibly subject to some level of defeat. 3. Clarify the situation in Abyssinia as soon as possible, and there is such an argument: the morale of the Italian army in the area must be very low now; the early end of the Abyssinia campaign can free up a large number of troops to reinforce our Middle East front.If part of Wavell's Middle Eastern troops can be immediately deployed to strengthen the attack on Abyssinia from the north and launch an offensive from Kenya at the same time, it is possible to quickly collapse the resistance of the Italian army.If attacking from both sides at the same time, I think it is enough to add one division each to the north and Kenya. 4. If such a plan for a simultaneous attack is approved, I am prepared to provide an additional division in the South.In addition to the lack of Czech light machine guns, the division was ready to go out as soon as the ships arrived.Some time must be required to transport so many troops from both the North and the South, so a decision should be taken as soon as possible if my proposals are to be approved.An offensive from the south would quickly push the front far away from Kenya, necessitating the abandonment of most of the plans currently being pursued there.If unnecessary danger and protracted warfare were to be avoided in an area as large as Eritrea and Abyssinia, then a north-south attack had to be planned.To carry out this plan, it was necessary, and perhaps sufficient, to add an additional division to the north.I hope this division can be called out, despite the rumors that the Germans are concentrating heavily on Romania and Hungary. The question is whether Germany will dare to start a war in the Balkans when Russia is an incalculable factor and Turkey is hostile.The failure of the Italian armies in Africa and Greece, together with the failure of the Luftwaffe to attack Britain, had changed the situation so much that the build-up of German forces may have been merely to appease the Italians and lure the British away from Britain; It is inevitable.The whole situation should be considered by the staff officers, who have the full facts of the situation.As things stand, it seems to me that there is little immediate danger of taking a division from the Middle Eastern army, plus the necessary air force, to reinforce the forces stationed in Sudan for an offensive from the north.A quick victory could have far-reaching consequences in Italy and the Middle East. 一月十日，三軍參謀長警告駐中東各司令官：德軍可能在本月底以前開始進攻希臘。他們認為，德軍將假道保加利亞，進軍的路線則可能是沿斯特魯馬河流域而下，直指薩洛尼卡。他們將投入三個師，由二百架俯衝轟炸機支援，並且在三月分以後，可能再增加三四個師。三軍參謀長們附帶說明，英皇陛下政府盡量給予希臘軍隊以最大援助的決議意味著，托卜魯克一經攻佔，所有中東的其他軍事行動應即退居次要的地位；他們並已准許自中東抽調機械化部隊、特種團隊和空軍，抽調的兵力應以以下列舉者為限：一個步兵坦克中隊、一個巡邏坦克團【１】、十個炮兵團、五個空軍中隊。 【１】步兵坦克是為了伴隨和支持步兵而設計的，是一種重型、緩慢、裝甲堅固的坦克。 駐在開羅的司令官們認為，德軍集結於羅馬尼亞我們事前曾提醒過他們只不過是一種神經戰，目的在於誘使我們分散中東的軍隊和阻止我們在利比亞的推進。韋維爾希望三軍參謀長緊急考慮敵人的調遣是否為虛張聲勢。 我讀了這封與事實大有出入的覆電以後，發出了以下的備忘錄： 首相致伊斯梅將軍或霍利斯上校， Transfer to the Chiefs of Staff Committee 一九四一年一月十日 三軍參謀長們應於明日星期六上午舉行會議，以便考慮從中東司令部發來的幾封電報。關於本件所附由我巡邏坦克比步兵坦克快、炮火火力強，但裝甲較輕。它在戰鬥中具有高度的機動性。 輕型坦克速度快，裝甲薄，只裝有機關鎗。這是用作偵察的。 起草的致韋維爾將軍和朗莫爾空軍中將的電報，除非他們認為還有應與我磋商之處，即可發出。 Prime Minister to General Wavell 一九四一年一月十日 你們認為，德軍集結於羅馬尼亞，不過是一種神經戰的調遣，或分散我方兵力之計，這種想法適與我們接獲的情報相反。我們接到的許多詳細的情報表明，假道保加利亞、直驅希臘邊境而以薩洛尼卡為目標的大規模行動將在本月底以前開始。敵人用於這次進攻的兵力不會太大，但是戰鬥力是極強的。到二月中旬，所有能夠越過保、希邊境的敵軍，看來只有一兩個裝甲師、一個摩托化師，約一百八十架俯衝轟炸機和一些空降兵部隊。 二‧但是，如果不阻止這支軍隊的前進，那麼它在希臘所起的作用，可能和德軍之突破色當【１】在法國所起的作用相同。希臘在阿爾巴尼亞的各師部隊將遭到致命的影響。這是從我們接獲的情報中了解到的事實和得出的推論，我們有充分的理由對此深信不疑。然而德國人為了對我們造成最大的損害，不正是應該這樣做嗎？希臘的毀滅將使你在利比亞獲得的勝利黯然失色，而且確實可能影響土耳其的態度，如果我們對於盟國的命運表示漠不關心的話，這種情形尤其難免。因此，你現在必須使你的計劃服從正受到危險的更大利益。 【１】在一八七○年普法戰爭中，以及在一九四○年，德軍曾兩度大敗法軍於色當。translator 三‧不得使攻佔托卜魯克的行動受到任何的阻礙，但是，其後即應以援助希臘為主，而使利比亞的一切軍事行動為副。 因此，你從收到這封電報時起，即應按照規定的限度作好準備，以便立即支援希臘。這些問題曾經內閣國防委員會認真地進行權衡，而史末資將軍在他經過獨自思考後發出的電報中也表示了同樣的看法。 四‧我們盼望並要求你們迅速而積極地按照決議行事，對此，我們當負完全責任。你會同有關人員訪問雅典，將使你想出最妥善的辦法來執行上述決議。雅典之行事不宜遲。 三軍參謀長意見一致，於是便發出了這封電報。人們即將看到，我們這時的意圖並不是要對希臘提供一個集團軍的兵力，只不過派遣一些特種團隊和技術部隊而已。 韋維爾將軍和朗莫爾空軍中將根據這些命令飛往雅典，與梅塔克薩斯將軍和帕普哥斯將軍會談。一月十五日，他們向我們報告說，在我們能夠派遣足夠的部隊發動攻勢以前，希臘政府不願我們的任何部隊在薩洛尼卡登陸。三軍參謀長收到電報後，於一月十七日電復說，我們當然不能強迫希臘接受支援。這樣一來，我們便改變了對於最近將來的看法，決定推進至班加西，同時盡可能在尼羅河三角洲建立一支最強大的戰略後備軍。 於是，三軍參謀長於一月二十一日向韋維爾將軍提議，攻佔班加西是當前頭等重要的任務。他們認為，如果把班加西建成一個設防鞏固的海空軍基地，即可放棄陸上路線，從而節省人力和車輛。他們並敦促他盡快奪取多德卡尼斯群島，特別是羅得島，以便阻止德國空軍搶先佔領那些島嶼，威脅我們同希臘與土耳其之間的交通。他們還敦促他編成四個師的戰略後備軍，以便隨時協助這兩個國家。 Prime Minister to General Wavell 一九四一年一月二十六日 德國飛機出現於地中海中部，已迫使我暫時放棄了我以前所抱的希望：開闢、監視通過地中海中部各海峽的航道，從而使運兵船隊能夠定期通過。除非這種局勢在今年最初幾個月內得到改善，船隻的缺乏和繞航好望角的航程，無疑將使尼羅河集團軍和中東戰區實力的增長難以達到我所希望的程度。我發現，我們不惜莫大的代價、甘冒不測的風險派出的運輸船隊竟包括大批後勤人員，而使我們編成的戰鬥部隊增加有限，這使我非常痛心。我將盡力用各種方法支持你；作為交換條件，我必須要求你使我確信：在中東確實作到人盡其用，並盡量編成以師或更好是以旅為單位的部隊。屬於後勤和軍事機構的內勤士兵，應有效地執行內部保安任務。 從各方面接到的情報使我深信，現在德軍已駐紮在保加利亞飛機場，正在作進攻希臘的各種準備。這種滲透，可能（幾乎肯定會）在土耳其人面對任何露骨的入侵問題以前達到決定性的程度，屆時德國人將對土耳其人說：獻出君士坦丁堡，否則將遭到轟炸。我們必須預料到巴爾幹各國將遭受一系列非常慘重的打擊，而且可能普遍地屈從德國的要求。你能在尼羅河三角洲建立的戰略後備軍越強大，把這支軍隊調往歐洲海岸的準備工作越充分，我們就越有可能作出有利的決定。 我現在電復史末資將軍： prime minister to general smuts 一九四一年一月十二日 我們考慮了三四天之後，得出了一些明確的結論，這時正好接到你八日的電報。我親自向國防委員會宣讀來電，在座的有三軍參謀長、海陸空軍大臣、艾德禮和艾登。大家意見完全一致，令人不勝驚異。唯一的分歧點在於：我們認為，大軍從肯尼亞北進，會由於運輸工具不足而受到長期拖延。起義順利；阿比西尼亞皇帝不久即可返國。由卡薩拉阿戈達特一線進軍可截斷敵軍的主力。你提到的軍隊已在途中。應盡量保持從肯尼亞施加的壓力，但是我們不能在這一線佔用過多的軍隊。請及早派遣一個師。該師快到時，或許能在紅海登陸。鑒於局勢變幻莫測，最好盡可能保持流動性，但是現在即請派來。 托卜魯克可能有二萬五千名意軍陷入重圍。完全同意在到達托卜魯克以後，不再以重大代價向前推進，如果道路良好的話，便繼續前進，以便盡量在遠離埃及的西面佈置側翼； 同時，把一切有用的部隊和裝備調往保希邊境一觸即發的戰爭的前線。當然，韋維爾和他的同僚一心想追擊敵軍，但是韋維爾將於星期一或星期二前往雅典同希臘人商談增援事宜。不能保證成功；只能作出我們認為是最好的安排。天氣、山陵、渡過多瑙河、希保邊境設防地帶，種種因素都有利於我。土耳其、南斯拉夫和俄國見到英國援助希臘，或許都會受到有利於我方的影響。 無論巴爾幹各國發生什麼事，駐在阿比西尼亞的意大利軍隊都有被消滅的可能。此事一旦實現，即應將用於肯尼亞的所有有用的部隊和物資調往地中海地區。希望將南非聯邦的軍隊調到那裡，以便參加夏季的戰鬥。我們仍在繼續繞航好望角運送大批增援部隊。十分感謝你的各項協助，尤其感激你的可靠的判斷，這和我們經過一番苦思得出的結論是一致的。