Chapter 4 original order

Edwin Bailey's book addresses one of the most important life-and-death questions of the twentieth century: Can humanity control the future?Does he really have a future?The dizzying pace of technological progress in the twentieth century has made this question more important than ever, and its answer harder to come by. Methods for predicting technological advances have not always been this difficult.Throughout the ages of modern science, some in the nineteenth century and some in the twentieth, every thirty to forty years, scientific discoveries have spread to everyday life, even to things like airplanes and radios. A class of important twentieth-century inventions has been widely used in less than three or forty years after its basic test was completed.In recent generations, however, the pace has been even faster. The first atomic bomb was detonated within six years after nuclear energy was initially tested in the laboratory; it was only six years from the invention of the transistor to the appearance of the transistor radio. ; It took only four years from the manufacture of the first electronic computer to its widespread use in industry; it was only three years from the invention of laser to its application in medicine.

In other ways, the pace is just as fast.In the nineteenth century, new technologies such as railways, telegraphs, and telephones continued to develop slowly after they entered the economy. For example, the speed of trains has not changed much in the past 100 years. The speed and power of computers, for example, have increased tenfold every seven years, and since the invention of lasers in 1960, their power has increased tenfold every year. With the current method of explosive technological progress, how can Bailey successfully predict the future?Not only does he have to keep abreast of new technological developments, but he also has to be on the lookout for scientific conferences.Bailey has encountered an admirable challenge. His brocade is woven with modern scientific materials. Many of his predictions are drawn from concepts, theories and achievements of ten to fifteen years, such as the first detection of the outer world; reconstruction; black and white holes in hyperspace; detection of gravitational radiation.

Does humanity have a future?This book takes a strong optimistic view: there is only one road ahead, and that road leads to endless technological development. No matter what happens, we will move forward to achieve the most amazing achievements. I agree with Bailey that on a time scale of 10,000 years, the famous overpopulation and the danger of nuclear war can be put aside, they are just short-term disturbances in the long-term development, which may set us back a few generations , or go back a thousand years, but that will not prevent humanity from reaching a point of stability in the endless process.But more complex and more permanent dangers still threaten, so we must turn to Darwin, the master of the history of life.

Implicit in Darwin's theory, some hints, I believe these will not appear in obvious form in his work, conversely, the primitive view of species is quite optimistic about the future of human beings, as the following evolutionary process As stated in : every living being has a tendency to become better adapted to its environment, and all geniuses, physical and mental, will tend to be more and more perfect. In Darwin's view, these evolutionary theories of natural selection apply to man as they do to the animal kingdom, and his theory of evolution seems to guarantee the continuation of the human type, and it also guarantees the infinite perfection of human nature.

Some important trends in the twentieth century provide an optimistic view. The application of science to agriculture and industry has increased the supply of many products.All humans have to do is commit themselves to satisfying the flow of new discoveries and inventions.In countries with highly developed science and technology, the transformation of life patterns is almost complete. At the same time, human life expectancy has also increased dramatically due to the results of medical science. Some statistics are impressive.In 1900, the average American worked 70 hours a week, but today, it only takes 30 to 40 hours, and there are reductions.In 1900, the average remaining life of Americans was forty-nine years old. Today, it has increased to seventy years old. In the next century, it is not impossible to expect a life expectancy of one hundred years, or even more than one hundred and fifty years old. The life expectancy is also what we can predict.

Long life isn't real happiness; who wants a seventy-year-old secretary, professor or bank manager?But broadly speaking, longevity brings benefits to many of the world's population.Downtime means more time for family, for entertainment, and for physical and mental development. Some prophesy of miraculous creative abilities, which provide opportunities for the struggle for survival, and will be applied to arts and sciences. Science The door to the golden age of rest has been opened for mankind, when all people will no longer be forced by the environment. Under the philosopher king, there is a satisfactory blueprint, but the drive to research, learn, and create work becomes less common.How will the future man use his spare time?And would the perception of a golden age be in line with human nature?

Again, the theory of evolution provides the appropriate response. According to Darwin, human beings are biological organisms struggling to survive. During the five million years of human evolution, each generation of people will enter an extraordinary Amongst material and spiritual attainments, they were given a more favorable disposition in food, and those who survived, in sexual maturity, reproduced their species, inheriting higher traits; Parents are more progressive, this is the theory of natural selection. Therefore, each generation after another is more mature and advanced than the previous generation.

But not only these tendencies will become more and more advantageous, but the number of animals of this nature will also increase.In each generation, they leave a relatively large number of individuals, so that some distinctive characteristics are widely distributed in the population. How did our ancestors use these behavioral and personality tendencies in a hostile environment?I think that among these obvious advantages and disadvantages, we must call this important unit of human nature witty, drive, and creativity.These characteristics, in the interests of man's struggle for existence, must have steadily increased from generation to generation, according to the law of natural selection, until today they have become an admirably intelligent creature, when man finally crosses the threshold of the age of rest , he will enter a whole new field.

All modern utopian predictions, especially those of scientists, are based on this reason.In a fairly new chapter of human history, this reason is not based on normal facts.About two hundred years ago, some adventurous Asians crossed the Pacific in their undecked boats, hoping to find a satisfactory land. This, like the Phoenicians in the Mediterranean and the ancient Norse in the Atlantic, showed their struggle. nature.Most of these Asians colonized some small islands in the Pacific Ocean. When they reached Tahiti, they found a paradise full of food and free from natural disasters. If this example is the precise enjoyment of life in the era of rest in the future, then why is the theory of natural selection misleading us?This theory is replete with evidence from the fossil record and studies of biological population growth; it has been accepted everywhere as the basis for long-range analysis of evolution, but where is it flawed in the analysis of human nature?

Modern man is a wonderful creature, full of vitality, intelligence and creative ability; the main fault is to think that he will never change in the future, the theory of natural selection can correctly describe the human being today. He is the product of millions of years of struggle, and Resistant to hunger, cold, and natural disasters, but what form will he have after generations of comfort and peace?Will he become impotent and lose his ability to create?Will he regress in the off-season? When most of the fish are still in the water, most of the apes are still in the forest, similarly, in tomorrow's world, most of the human beings will still be on the earth, space is not a living thing on earth There is no other suitable place for the earth's inhabitants to live in, but a small number of human beings will prepare to work in the zero-gravity environment of space, and they will leave us, and their descendants will be scattered in the galaxy, They will become a small population on Mars and then the second space tourists.

They will find that the gravity of the earth will cause unsuitable conditions, just like the ancient fish three million years ago, but they will produce new species, become human, and connect with the ancient planet, this is what Bailey said, the only The question is, when will this happen? Robert Jastrw