Chapter 5 Chapter 2 The Scientific Revolution of Nobel Masters

If the establishment of the Santa Fe Research Institute happened in the business world, you have to imagine that the director of the IBM Research Center left, started a small new-age company in his garage, and persuaded the chairman of Xerox and General Motors to join. On a sunny day a month after his ill-fated trip to Berkeley, as Arthur was crossing the Stanford campus, a motorcycle pulled up in front of him. Wearing an old white helmet, it seems that he is not an ordinary person. It's Airl!Arthur was alarmed at once, not because he was afraid of Arrow, but talking to Arrow as if he were talking to the Pope.True, he was most against the over-mathematical economics of which Arrow was the originator, but he knew that Arrow was an amiable, open-minded man who loved good debate, and that he could attack you After being decent, I will still be your good friend.There is no doubt that Arrow is the best economist in the world at present, and he won the Nobel Prize ten years ago.Although now sixty-five years old, he still has a quick mind, and it is said that he is very impatient with other people's hasty reasoning.As soon as he walked into the meeting room, he might have changed the atmosphere of the entire seminar: the speaker began to walk on eggshells, the audience sat up straight, stopped joking, and everyone focused on the topic at hand.They all thought carefully before asking a question or commenting, because no one wanted to look like an idiot in front of Airl.

Arrow said: Arthur, I was going to call you. Oh hi!Arthur replied.Clearly in a hurry, Airl quickly explained that he was helping a small New Mexico research institute organize a conference of economists and physicists.The seminar will be held at the end of the summer vacation, and he will invite ten economists, and Anderson, the condensate physicist, will invite ten physicists.He asked: Can you come and publish a paper on morphological locking? sure!Arthur heard himself reply.Morph lock?What is Morph Locking?Was Arrow talking about his research on lock-in and increasing returns?Did Arrow know about his work on increasing returns?Well, where is this research institute?

In Santa Fe, right at the foot of the Rocky Mountains.Arrow said.He climbed on the bicycle, said goodbye quickly, promised to send him more materials in the future, and rode away on the bicycle.Arrow's white helmet can still be seen all the way along Stanford's Palm Avenue. Arthur stared at Airl's back, trying to figure out what he had promised just now.He didn't know which one surprised him more: Do physicists want to discuss it with economists?Or did Arrow actually want to talk to him? From the atomic bomb to complex science A few weeks later, in May of 1987, Arthur got a call from a soft voice introducing himself as Ke Wen from the Santa Fe Institute.Ke Wen first thanked him for agreeing to attend the autumn economics conference.He explained that he and other colleagues valued the meeting.The Santa Fe Institute is a small private institution founded by physicist Gehrman and other scholars dedicated to the study of complex systems at every level, from condensate physics to society as a whole, as long as it involves many parts interacting strongly The knowledge is their research scope.The Institute has no faculty and no students, but is interested in building a broad network of researchers, of which economics is an important part.

But Cowan added that the real reason for his call: Arrow suggested that the Santa Fe Institute invite Arthur as a visiting scholar.In other words, that fall, Arthur could arrive in Santa Fe a few weeks before the meeting, and stay a few weeks after the meeting, so he would have plenty of time to meet with other researchers in Santa Fe. Discuss and work together.Is he interested? Of course interested, Arthur replied.Why not?Six weeks in Santa Fe in the fall, all at my own expense.Plus, he must admit, he's been impressed by Santa Fe's strong academic firepower.After Arrow and Anderson, Gorman was the third Nobel laureate he heard of being linked to Santa Fe.Gelman was one of the founders of the theory of quarks, the smallest elementary particles in matter.Arthur still didn't know what Cowen meant by complex systems, but the whole thing was starting to look crazy and interesting.oh!By the way, I'm afraid no one has ever mentioned your name to me. What is your function in Santa Fe?Arthur asked.

The other end of the telephone line paused for a moment, coughed and said: I am the dean. Mother Teresa in tracksuit In fact, Arthur is not the only person who is confused by the Santa Fe Institute. Almost everyone who comes into contact with Santa Fe for the first time will be shocked.This place greatly violates the established impression of ordinary people.The founders of this institution are a group of elderly academic giants with a Nobel Prize halo on their heads, high status, and well-known reputation.But they are using their popularity as a stepping stone to fuel a self-proclaimed scientific revolution.

Filled with hard-core physicists and computer whizzes from Los Alamos, the secretive birthplace of nuclear weapons, the corridors are filled with lively discussions about the new science of complexity.Complexity science covers disciplines ranging from evolutionary biology to economics, political science, and history. It also has a great ideal: to help the world build a more sustainable and peaceful world of harmony. Simply put, this is a complete paradox.If the Santa Fe Research Institute had happened in the business world, you'd have to imagine that the head of IBM's research center left, started a small New Age destiny consulting service in his garage, and convinced Quanlog (XEROX), General Motors (GM) and Chase Manhattan (Chase Manhattan) joined the chairman.

What's more unusual is that the entrepreneur in this picture, Ke Wen, used to be the host of the Los Alamos Research Center, and he is also the least likely New Age believer.At sixty-seven, Cowen is a soft-spoken, retiring man, a sort of Mother Teresa in her golf top and sweater.He wasn't very charismatic, and in any group he was always on the sidelines, listening.He is certainly not known for his eloquence, and anyone who asks him why he founded this institution will probably end up with a serious discussion about the face of science in the twenty-first century and the need to grasp scientific opportunities, as if it would be appropriate in science ( Expert reviews published in the journal Science.

The listener will slowly discover that Ke Wen is actually a passionate and determined person behind his thoughtful thinking.He didn't think the Santa Fe Research Institute was a paradox. He believed that the Institute could achieve a goal that was more important than himself, Los Alamos, and even the Institute itself.He used to say that if it didn't work this time, someone would have to spend twenty years trying to do it all over again.The Santa Fe Research Institute is Ke Wen's mission. For him, this is an opportunity for the entire science to be reinvented and reborn. Do odd jobs in Fermi's lab

Once upon a time, long ago, a group of ambitious young scientists devoted themselves to the creation of nuclear weapons in pursuit of a better world.Ke Wen never regretted his investment at that time.All my life, I've thought about other possibilities.But moral penance?there has never been.If there were no nuclear weapons, we might be closer to destruction because of chemical and biological weapons.If many things of the 1940s had not happened, I doubt whether the history of the past fifty years would have been better for mankind.In those days, he said, working on nuclear weapons was almost a moral imperative.Of course, during the war, Cowan and his fellow scientists were desperately competing against the Nazis, who still had the best physicists in the world at their service and were way ahead of the US in bomb design (a hypothesis that later turned out to be Incorrect).We knew that if it failed, Hitler would have built the atomic bomb first, and that would have been the end of the world.Ke Wen said.

In fact, Cowan had been involved in bomb research long before the Manhattan atomic bomb project.In the fall of 1941, when he was a twenty-one-year-old freshman majoring in chemistry at the Institute of Technology in his hometown of Worcester, Massachusetts, he was already involved in Princeton University's cyclotron research project.Physicists at Princeton were studying the newly discovered process of nuclear fission and its effect on an isotope of uranium 235 .Ke Wen originally planned to take some graduate courses by the way, but on December 7, 1941, the laboratory suddenly changed to work seven days a week, and his wishful thinking was postponed indefinitely.

At the time, the United States was really worried that the Germans were developing an atomic bomb, and physicists were crazy about whether it was possible to build an atomic bomb.Our research data is the key to determine whether uranium can chain reaction.Ke Wen said.As a result, the answer is yes.The federal government suddenly found they desperately needed Mr Cowan's contribution.A special academic background spanning chemistry and nuclear physics made me an indispensable expert in the atomic bomb research program. From 1942 until the end of World War II, he worked for the Metallurgy Lab at the University of Chicago.At that time, a research team led by Italian physicist Enrico Fermi (1901︱1954, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1938) was working on building the first atomic reactor.Ke Wen is a junior in the research team, so he has become a bit of a handyman. From casting uranium metal, cutting graphite blocks that control the reaction rate of atomic furnaces, to anything else that needs to be done, it may fall on him.But before Fermi's breakthrough with the atomic reactor in December 1942, Cowen found that his experience in Chicago had made him an expert in the chemical properties of radioactive elements in the Manhattan Project.So the director of the research group began sending him to places like Oak Ridge to help engineers calculate exactly how much iron they were producing in hastily built nuclear factories.I was single at the time, so they sent me all over the country.Whenever there is a bottleneck somewhere, I may be sent to help out.Ke Wen said. nuclear arms race breaks out Indeed, Cowen was one of the few people at the time who was allowed to travel between different parts of the research project.In order to keep secret, at that time, the authorities strictly separated the research program into different parts.I don't know why they trust me, Ke Wen said with a smile: I drink no less than others.He still has a memento of that time: a letter from University of Chicago personnel to the local recruiting office in Worcester stating that Mr. Cowan possessed skills unique to winning the war, which had been postponed by the President himself. Serve, please don't be drafted again. After the war, the race of scientists against the Nazis turned into a race against the Russians.This is undoubtedly a dangerous time.Stalin occupied Eastern Europe, the Berlin Wall was raised, followed by the Korean War and the Cold War; there seemed to be only a thin line between the Cold War and the Hot War.And the Soviet Union is also developing their nuclear force!To maintain the balance of power and defend democracy and freedom, the United States seems to have no choice but to continue to improve its nuclear weapons.It was this sense of urgency that brought Cowen back to Los Alamos in July 1949, after spending three years earning his doctorate at Carnegie Tech in Pittsburgh. Ke Wen still remembers that the director of the radiochemistry research project came to him a week or two after he arrived in Los Alamos.Ask him evasively if his new laboratory is not contaminated by radiation at all.Ke Wen gave him an affirmative answer, so Ke Wen and his equipment were immediately called in for an urgent and top secret analysis.The air samples to measure the amount of atomic dust were delivered that night, and they did not tell him where they were collected, but he could guess that they were taken somewhere near the Soviet border.When Cowan and his colleagues detected fallout, they were blunt that the Soviet Union had apparently tested an atomic bomb. So they put me on the list of a secret group in Washington, Cowan said.The group was code-named Bethe Panel, and the first convener was Cornell University physicist Bethe (Hans Bethe, 1906︱, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1967).Bate's team was formed by a group of atomic scientists whose purpose was to track the development of Soviet nuclear weapons.Ke Wen was only thirty years old at the time.At the beginning, top government executives thought that the fallout detected by the chemists could not really indicate an atomic bomb test. They thought they knew that Stalin would be years away from developing an atomic bomb, and that an atomic reactor must have exploded in the Soviet Union. . But the nice thing about radiochemistry is that you can measure exactly what's going on.Ke Wen said.The distribution of radioactive isotopes produced by an atomic reactor explosion is very different from the distribution of radioactive dust in an atomic bomb explosion.We tried our best to convince them.But in the end, the older and wiser government officials had to accept the undeniable evidence that the Soviet atomic bomb was called Joe︱1 (Joe︱1), after Stalin's name.Thus began the nuclear arms race. leave politics to the politicians So Ke Wen said: No!He does not feel that he needs to apologize for studying nuclear weapons; however, he has another layer of deeper regret for what happened in those years. He feels that the scientific community has collectively abdicated its due responsibility. Of course, they did not immediately abdicate their responsibilities, nor did they completely abdicate.In 1945, a group of scientists involved in the Manhattan Project distributed petitions everywhere, urging the US government not to drop the atomic bomb directly on Japan, but to drop it on uninhabited islands.But later, two atomic bombs were still dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, and the war ended.Many of the scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project formed various political campaigns that lobbied hard for the government to adopt the strictest possible controls on nuclear weapons, and civilian controls.The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a journal that explores the political and social implications of nuclear energy, and the Federation of Atomic Scientists (now the Federation of American Scientists), of which Cowan was a member, were both founded at this time.Cowan said: What the scientists involved in the Manhattan Project said in Washington was taken seriously.After the atomic bomb exploded in the 1940s, physicists were considered miracle workers.They had a lot to do with drafting the McMahon Bill, and thus creating the Atomic Energy Commission, and putting atomic energy under civilian control. But all of these efforts have not been fully supported by the scientific community, Cowan said.After the passage of the McMurhan Act in July 1946, the practicability of scientists evaporated.Perhaps it was inevitable, Cowen said, that scientific and political cultures were inherently at odds.Generally speaking, people who come to Washington as scientists leave screaming that they can't stand it.They are completely new to politics, and their hope that government policy will be based on logic and scientific truth may be a passing illusion. But in any case, the scientists returned to the laboratory happily after all, leaving the war to the generals and politics to the politicians to worry about.When they did that, they also missed an unprecedented opportunity to leverage their influence, Cowen said. Although Ke Wen has been involved more than other scientists, he has not exonerated himself.For example, he was elected president of the Los Alamos Society of Scientists in 1954, and they met regularly with Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Lewis Strauss at the height of McCarthy's tumult.At the time, Senator McCarthy, elected from Wisconsin, convinced almost everyone that America was infiltrated by communists.Ke Wen and his colleagues protested the political persecution caused by anti-communism at the time. They demanded more freedom of information and less information control in the laboratory; although in vain, they also tried to lead the former Manhattan Project. Oppenheimer (Robert Oppenheimer) defended, at the time only because Oppenheimer may have some friends who attended Communist Party rallies in the 1930s, it became a serious stain on his record of loyalty investigation. Research on smaller, lighter hydrogen bombs At the same time, Ke Wen continued to serve on the Bate team (the work of the Bate team continued for three decades), and he began to understand that Washington was a place that was painfully simple-minded.After the Second World War, the United States woke up from the pre-war isolationism and clearly realized the importance of military power.Having learned this lesson, many government officials seem to have put everything else behind them.Their perception is that you have to hit the nail on the head.I thought Thrones was a symphony orchestra, but too many people can only play double bass. In fact, Kirwan felt dismayed that the Russians understood the intricate chords of power better than Washington did.They seem to pay attention to the intellectual, emotional and ideological aspects of power.At the time, I think they were also very conscious of the scientific aspects of power.They see the Game of Thrones as a big chess game with lots of action; we see it as a simple game with a single dimension.Even then, Cowen wondered if this was yet another area where scientists were failing their responsibilities.I think scientists should have a broader view of the nature of the postwar world, though I didn't think about it as clearly then as I do now.But, at that time, there was no time! After the Soviet Union tested Joe︱1 in August 1949, Los Alamos went full steam ahead to develop a more powerful thermonuclear hydrogen bomb.After the first hydrogen bomb was tested in the fall of 1952, the laboratory continued to ramp up efforts to develop smaller, lighter, and easier-to-handle bombs.Against the backdrop of the Korean War and the continued confrontation between the two major blocs in Europe, there is a strong feeling that nuclear weapons will play a pivotal role in the power tug of war.The development of nuclear weapons is an extremely important mission. More importantly, Ke Wen's management responsibilities in Los Alamos are getting heavier and heavier. He has little time to study science and can only do his own experiments on weekends.So, I didn't do very well in science.He said slightly sadly.But questions of power and responsibility lingered on his mind.In 1982, when Cowen ceased directing the Los Alamos Research Center and accepted a position on the White House Science Council (White House Science Council), the idea fully occupied his mind, and he even began to watch Here comes a second chance for scientists to make an impact. expert's dilemma The meeting of the White House Science Advisory Council fully explained why the scientists who wanted to reform society in 1946 were so eager to escape to their laboratories.Usually, Ke Wen and a group of dignified scientists will gather in the conference hall of the new administration building in Washington, and then the president's science adviser, George Keyworth II, will send everyone a series of topics, asking everyone to express their opinions.Ke Wen had to admit that he didn't know what to say. The problem of AIDS was not serious at that time, but they felt that it might suddenly worsen, so they discussed this topic in every meeting.To be honest, I was confused and didn't know how to react.Ke Wen said.Is this a public health issue?Is it a moral issue?or something else?The answer was not obvious at the time. Another issue is whether to go into space with astronauts or unmanned. It is said that Congress will never vote in favor of unmanned space exploration, but I don't know if the rumor is true or not. This is more like a political issue than a scientific issue. . Then there was President Reagan's Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative), Reagan hoped to protect the United States from a large number of nuclear missiles with a defensive barrier in space.Is this technically possible?Won't the process of building bankrupt America?Even if the plan works, is it smart to do so?Wouldn't it instead upset the original balance of power and plunge the world into yet another devastating arms race? There is also the issue of nuclear power generation.How do you weigh the risk of nuclear meltdown, the difficulty of disposing of nuclear waste, and the greenhouse effect caused by burning fossil fuels? As such, Cowen found the experience frustrating.These issues offer many lessons in relation to science, public policy, economics, the environment, and even morality and religion.But he felt incapable of providing relevant input, and experts in other fields on the scientific advisory board were no better.How do they do it?These topics require extensive expertise.But this group of people, whether as scientists or as managers, have spent their entire lives trying to become experts in narrow fields, because the corporate culture of the scientific community requires professionalism! The royal road to the Nobel Prize usually favors a reductionist perspective, he says, of breaking the world down into the smallest, simplest pieces possible.The problems you're working on are idealized, more or less removed from the real world, and the propositions are sufficiently constrained so that you can find solutions.He said: Thus, science becomes more and more fragmented, whereas the real world demands a more holistic view (although I hate that word).Everything affects everything else, and you have to understand the overall context. suffering from narrow vision Even more frustrating, he feels the situation is worse for the younger generation of scientists.From the perspective of young people who have come and gone to Los Alamos, they are all extremely bright and energetic, but they are conditioned by a scientific culture that encourages differentiation and fragmentation.Universities are incredibly conservative.Young PhDs dare not break the tradition, they must spend several years in a department in desperate pursuit of a tenured professorship, that is to say, the research they do should preferably be a topic that can be accepted by the professor qualification review committee of the department , otherwise, they'd hear something like, Joe, you've worked hard over there with the biologists, but, don't we see from here that you're also leading the way in physics?Older academics are devoting themselves to fighting for research grants with all their energies except for their sleep time. In other words, they better tailor their research proposals to suit the funding agencies, otherwise they will hear things like: Joe, This is a good idea, but unfortunately it is not within the scope of our department's subsidy.and so on.Moreover, everyone must find a way to publish papers in authoritative academic journals, and the papers published in authoritative academic journals are almost limited to recognized professional fields. Ke Wen said that after a few years like this, the acquired narrow vision became instinctive, and everyone no longer cared about this situation.In his experience at Los Alamos, the closer a researcher is to academia, the harder it is to participate in the team's work.He sighed: I have been fighting this situation for thirty years. However, the more he thought about it, the more serious it was that this process of compartmentalization harmed science as a whole.Traditional academic training isolates various disciplines from each other, almost killing the life of academics.Look around and there are great opportunities for scientific research everywhere, but many scientists seem to be completely indifferent to these opportunities. If what he saw in Los Alamos was any indication, something big was afoot.In the past ten years, he has increasingly felt that the traditional reduction theory has come to an end. Some core members of the physics community have begun to feel impatient with abstract equations that ignore the complexity of the real world. They seem to have begun to explore new way, and in the process, they have crossed centuries of traditional academic boundaries. what is life Ironically, one source of their inspiration was molecular biology.In most people's imaginations, molecular biology would not be something that would interest a weapons lab like Los Alamos.However, in fact many physicists have been involved in the study of molecular biology from the beginning, and many pioneers of molecular biology were physicists.What inspired these people to change careers was a thin little book: What is life? (What Is Life?) This book was written in 1944 by the Austrian physicist Erwin Schrodinger (Erwin Schrodinger, 1887︱1961, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1933), one of the inventors of quantum mechanics. Written, it is a collection of articles thinking about the physical and chemical basis of life.Crick was deeply influenced by this book. In 1953, he and Watson used the data obtained by X-ray diffraction technology to deduce the molecular structure of DNA. In fact, Crick was originally an experimental physicist.And the theoretical physicist Gamow (George Gamow, 1904︱1968), who first advocated that the universe originated from the Big Bang, also began to have a strong interest in genetic codes in the 1950s. He inspired more physicists to step into this field .Ke Wen said: On this topic, the first in-depth speech I heard was given by Gamow.Since then, he has been fascinated by molecular biology.Especially in the early 1970s, after the invention of recombinant DNA technology, biologists had the ability to analyze and manipulate the life forms of individual molecules.Therefore, when Ke Wen became the director of the research center in 1978, he quickly supported a project to study the damage of radiation to cells.In fact, his real purpose is to let the Los Alamos Research Center participate in a wider range of molecular biology research. The timing was perfect, as Los Alamos nearly tripled in size in the 1970s under former research center director Harold Agnew, and opened the door to more unclassified foundations and applied research.Cowen's emphasis on molecular biology came at the right time, and this research project has greatly changed the way scholars think about laboratories, especially Cowen himself. Inherently, the characteristics of physical science lie in the elegance of ideas and the simplicity of analysis, so it is easy for you to take advantage of this and ignore the others.In fact, physicists are notoriously dismissive of soft sciences like sociology or psychology; but these soft sciences also have lofty goals, and they all try to grasp the complex aspects of the real world.Then, molecular biology came along.What molecular biology analyzes is an extremely complex life system governed by profound laws.Once you make friends with biology, you lose elegance, you lose simplicity, you get messy, but it's much easier to cross into economics and sociology from there.Once you're halfway in the water, you're likely to start swimming. Youyou Computer World But at the same time, scientists are thinking more and more about complex systems simply because they have the ability to do so, Cowan said.When you can only solve equations with pen and paper, how many variables can you handle at most?three?four?However, when the power of the computer becomes stronger and stronger, you can handle as many variables as you like. In the early 1980s, computers were everywhere.Personal computers are in the ascendant, scientists are busy installing high-performance graphics workstations on their desks, and supercomputers are springing up like mushrooms in large enterprises and national laboratories.Suddenly, equations with countless variables don't look so complicated, and data floods don't seem so overwhelming. Columns of numbers and miles of data strips can be converted into colors. Maps showing crop yields, or stratigraphic zones that contain oil.Ke Wen said lightly: A computer is a good bookkeeping machine. However, computers can do much more than that.Properly programmed, a computer can become a whole, separate world in which scientists can roam, exploring science in a variety of ways while gaining a richer understanding of the real world. In fact, in the 1980s, the power of computer simulation technology in scientific research led many to call it the third form of science, because computer simulation is right between experiment and theory.For example, a computer-simulated storm seems theoretical on the one hand, because the computer contains nothing but a long list of equations describing sunlight, wind, and water vapor; but on the other hand, a computer simulation is also like an experiment, because these complex equations Human calculations are impossible, so when scientists watch a simulated storm on a computer screen, they see equations unfold in ways they never expected, and even simple equations can lead to shocking results .The mathematical equations of a storm actually describe how waves of air squeeze against each other, how droplets of water vapor condense and evaporate, and other such little tricks.There is no such clear description as the updraft and rain freezing together into hail, or the cold and wet downdraft suddenly scattered from the bottom of the cloud to the ground.But when the computer puts all the equations together hour after hour, it reveals exactly that. What's more, it allows scientists to use computer simulations to perform experiments they can't do in the real world: What are the real causes of updrafts and downdrafts?What happens to airflow when air temperature and humidity change?Which factors really contributed to the variation in the storm, and which ones did not?Are the factors that affect every storm the same? Before the 1980s, such data-based experiments had become very common.From the flight tests of new aircraft, to the turbulent interstellar gas flow into a black hole, to the formation of the Milky Way after the Big Bang, the physics community has widely embraced the idea of ​​computer simulations.So you can start thinking about how to study complex systems.Ke Wen said. The whole will be greater than the sum of its parts But there is a deeper level of magic in complexity science, thanks in part to computer simulations and in part to new mathematical insights. Physicists began to understand in the early 1980s that many chaotic and complex systems could be manipulated by powerful nonlinear dynamics. Learning (nonlinear dynamics) to analyze.In the process, they are forced to confront a disconcerting truth: the whole really is greater than the sum of its parts. To most people, this is obvious.Physicists panic only because they have been in love for three hundred years with linear systems in which the whole is exactly equal to the sum of the parts. (Linear means that if you draw the equation on graph paper, it will appear as a straight line.) In all fairness, they have good reason to think so.If a system is equal to the sum of its parts, then each component is free to develop regardless of what is going on around it, and is therefore relatively easy to analyze mathematically. Besides, nature does mostly work that way.Sound is a linear system!This is why when an oboe and strings are played together, you can recognize the sound of both instruments at the same time.Their sound waves mix interactively, but still maintain their individual timbres.Light is also a linear system!That's why you can still see the go/no-go lights on the sidewalk on a bright sunny day: the light projected into your eyes from the lights isn't knocked out by the sun's rays from high up on the ground.Different kinds of light move independently and pass each other as if nothing.Sometimes, even economies are linear systems!Because small economies also operate independently, for example, someone who buys a newspaper at the corner grocery store has no effect on your decision to go to the supermarket to buy toothpaste. However, there are also vastly nonlinear systems in nature that comprise most of the most interesting things.Our brains are not linear systems. Although the sounds of the oboe and the strings enter your ears separately, the emotional fluctuations caused by the combination of the two sounds may be far greater than the sound of either instrument alone. This is why We need a symphony orchestra.The economy is not in fact a linear system, and the decisions of millions of individuals to buy or sell may influence each other, reinforcing the effect and causing the economy to boom or bust.And economic booms and busts come back to affect the original buying decision. Indeed, in all but the simplest physical systems, almost everything and everyone in the world is entangled in a nonlinear web of inducements, constraints, and relationships.The slightest change in one place can cause shocks everywhere.As Eliot (TS Eliot, 1888︱1965, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1948) said, we have to make waves in the universe.The whole is almost always much more than the sum of the parts.And if you want to express this characteristic in mathematics, it is a nonlinear equation, and the graph drawn is a curve. The ocean of nonlinear science 眾所週知，要以人工演算來解非線性方程式非常困難，這是科學家長久以來一直規避它的原因；但是，這也正是電腦能派上用場的地方。從五○及六○年代科學家開始玩電腦開始，他們就明白，電腦根本不在乎線性、非線性的問題，它只管努力解出答案。當科學家開始運用電腦的力量來解析愈來愈多的非線性方程式時，他們開始發現一些過去在線性系統中從未看到的神奇狀況。 例如，通過狹窄溝渠的波浪和量子場論中某種微妙的動力有極深的關聯性，它們都是一種叫孤立子（soliton）的能量脈衝的例證。木星的大紅斑（Great Red Spot）可能是另外一種孤立子，它是個比地球還要大的旋轉颶風，已經獨立存在了至少四百年。 物理學家普里歌金所大力倡導的自我組織體系，也是由非線性動力所主宰。舉個例子：慢火燉湯時，支配著湯分子自我組織滾動的動力，和其他的非線性形態（例如斑馬的條紋和蝴蝶翅膀的斑點）非常類似。 但是，最令人震驚的是叫作混沌的非線性現象。在人類的日常活動中，甲地發生的小事件會對乙地產生巨大影響，並不足為奇。但是當物理學家開始重視非線性系統時，他們才明白非線性的原理是多麼奧妙。例如，乍看之下，風和溼氣流動的方程式非常簡單，但是當科學家發現德州一隻蝴蝶擺動翅膀，可能會改變一個星期後海地的暴風雨路線；或是蝴蝶的翅膀只要向左擺動一毫米，可能就會使颶風轉向完全不同的方向問題就非常複雜了。 一個接著一個的例子都在傳遞相同的訊息：世上萬物都息息相關。小騷動不會一直只是小騷動，在適當的條件下，小小的不確定會膨脹擴大，直到整個系統的未來都完全不可預測、或混沌一片。 科學家開始了解，只要有一點點的非線性因素，即使是最簡單的系統都可能產生令人震驚的複雜行為模式。例如水龍頭滴滴答答漏水，只要滴水的速度夠慢，滴答聲可能就會像節拍器打的拍子一樣，規律得令人發狂。但是如果你置之不理，讓水滴漏的頻率增加，那麼很快就會變成大滴與小滴交錯滴落：滴︱答滴︱答。如果你繼續置之不理，讓水漏得更厲害，水滴就會從四滴一個序列，變成八、十六、以此類推下去。最後，水滴落的次序變得極其複雜，似乎是隨機的滴落。這會兒，混沌又出現了。這種逐漸遞增複雜度的相同形態，也會出現在果蠅繁殖數目的變化及水流的澎湃，或其他任何領域中。 難怪物理學家驚惶失措。他們當然知道在量子力學、黑洞等領域有些古怪的發現，但是自從牛頓以降，物理學家已經習於把周遭世界看成一個有條不紊、可以預測的世界，並遵循著已知的法則運作。如今卻彷彿他們在過去三個世紀都生活在一個小小的孤島上，對周遭發生的一切一無所知。一旦你脫離了線性近似法，你就航行在汪洋大海中。柯文說。 looking for 結果，羅沙拉摩斯幾乎正是非線性研究的理想環境。柯文說，不只因為當地的實驗室從一九五○年代就長於高深的計算，而且研究人員從實驗室創立之初就在探索非線性問題，如高能粒子物理、流體動力學、核聚變能研究、到熱核衝擊波等。在一九七○年代初期，科學家已發現，很多非線性問題骨子裏並無二致，都有著相同的數學結構。所以，如果一起研究這些問題，將會省下很多工夫。結果，在羅沙拉摩斯理論小組的熱心支持下，理論部門成立了一項非線性科學研究計畫，後來還成為獨立的非線性系統中心（Center for Nonlinear System）。 然而，儘管分子生物學、電腦模擬及非線性科學都如此引人入勝，柯文懷疑這只是個開始而已。他感覺到有一種潛在的統合性可貫穿其間，而以闡釋這種統合性為旨的科學，終將涵蓋物理、化學、生物學，以及資訊處理、經濟學、政治學和其他人類事務的所有相關層面。在他腦中盤旋的概念近乎中古的學術思想，他認為如果真有這種統合性，我們將會對這個無論在生物、物理之間，或跨入歷史、哲學的領域，其道均一以貫之的世界，多一層了解。曾經有一度，知識的織錦天衣無縫。柯文說，也許美景將會重現。 對柯文而言，這是難以置信的大好機會，為什麼大學裏的科學家看不見呢？就某種程度而言，那些人的研究散見各處，幾無漏網之魚，偏偏獨缺他一直尋尋覓覓的宏觀思維。因為，這種整合性的宏觀思維超越了任何單一的學術領域。沒錯，大學裏充斥著跨學門研究中心，但是就柯文所知，這些機構只不過是一群人偶爾共用一間辦公室而已。教授和研究生仍然必須對自己的系所忠貞不貳，因為這些系所掌握了頒發學位、核定終身職及決定陞遷的大權。柯文認為，如果沒有人督促，這些大學至少三十年內都不會展開複雜科學的研究。 不幸的是，羅沙拉摩斯似乎也無意於此，這真是太糟了。一般說來，武器實驗室要比大學更適合作這類跨學門的廣泛研究，而這也是許多來訪的學者大表讚嘆的地方。這要回溯到實驗室創辦的歷史，柯文說。曼哈坦計畫因為一個特別的挑戰製造原子彈而誕生，因此他們從各個不同的相關領域網羅人才，以科學家團隊的力量來因應挑戰。舉世公認，這是支出色的隊伍，包括了歐本海默、費米、波耳（Niels Bohr, 1885︱1962）、馮諾曼（John von Neumann, 1903︱1957）、貝特、費曼（Richard Feynman, 1918︱1988）、維格納（Eugene Wigner, 1902︱）等當代大師與才俊，當時有位觀察家稱之為自古雅典以來最偉大的知識分子團隊。但是，從此這就成為羅沙拉摩斯實驗室對研究的看法，管理階層最重要的工作就是要讓適合的專家彼此討論。我有時候覺得自己像個媒人。柯文說。 唯一的問題是，柯文偉大的科學綜合體並不符合實驗室的基本使命。的確，這和原子彈的發展風馬牛不相及，而不合乎實驗室基本使命的研究將得不到任何補助。因此，儘管實驗室仍然可以像過去一樣，東做一點混沌、西做一點複雜，但是絕不可能有太大的突破。 培育文藝復興人 不，只有一個辦法。柯文開始想像一個新的、獨立的研究機構。理想上，這個機構應該兼取兩者之長：一方面有大學的廣博，另一方面有羅沙拉摩斯融合不同學術領域的能力。他知道這個機構應該和羅沙拉摩斯實驗室分開，但是如果可能的話，最好就在附近，以便運用羅沙拉摩斯的人力資源和電腦設備。離羅沙拉摩斯只有三十五英里的聖塔菲是個蠻理想的地點。而最重要的是，無論研究院設在何處，都應該網羅到傑出的科學家（真正了解自己研究領域的人），而且提供他們比一般更寬廣的空間。在這裏，資深研究人員可以花時間探究一些還不十分成熟的想法，而不會為同僚所譏笑；在這裏，年輕的科學家可以和世界級的大師攜手合作。 簡言之，這個地方應該培育戰後罕見的科學人才類型，也就是二十一世紀的文藝復興人。柯文說：他們儘管是科學出身，但是卻有能力應付混亂、不優雅、科學通常不打理的現實世界。 他太天真了嗎？certainly!但是，柯文覺得如果他能誘導其他人看到這個科學挑戰的遠景，說不定行得通。他問自己：一九八○年代和九○年代才華洋溢的科學家，應該學哪一種科學？所以首先，誰可能有興趣聽他說明？還有，很重要的是，誰有辦法促成這個想法實現？ 有一天到華盛頓的時候，柯文先試著向白宮科學顧問基渥斯及科學顧問委員會委員、惠普公司創辦人派格（David Packard）解釋他的想法。令他詫異的是，他們竟然沒有笑他，事實上，他們還鼓勵他。於是，在一九八三年春天，柯文決定向每週午餐聚會的同伴羅沙拉摩斯的資深研究員，公開他的想法。 他們很喜歡這個主意！ 羅沙拉摩斯的元老們 在局外人的眼中，很容易認為這些資深研究員不過是一群古怪老頭兒，領著令人咋舌的高薪，過著半退休的安逸日子。這個集團包括數名羅沙拉摩斯的元老，他們就像柯文一樣，對實驗室勞苦功高，因此當局酬庸他們資深研究之職，從此不必再管一堆繁瑣的行政事務或官僚作業。唯一的職責就是每週有一次午餐聚會，並且偶爾在一些政策性議題上，提供實驗室主持人一些意見。 但是，事實上這群人還生龍活虎，他們是那種聽到自己的新職位時，會說：謝謝老天爺，現在我終於可以完成一些真正的工作了的人。而且，因為許多人過去或多或少都曾經當過重要主管，因此不管現任的實驗室主持人愛不愛聽，他們可絕不吝於說出自己的看法。所以，當柯文說明他設立研究院的想法，希望得到一些建議或支持時，他收穫豐碩。 教育改革家 例如，卡魯塞斯（Pete Carruthers）立刻呼應柯文的說法：新科學正呼之欲出，但是大家視若無睹。在不修邊幅、戲謔成性的外表下，其實卡魯塞斯對複雜系統十分狂熱，他稱之為下一波科學的主要推動力。他不是無的放矢。一九七三年，在柯文所主持的獵才委員會推薦下，卡魯塞斯從康乃爾大學被延攬到羅沙拉摩斯來主持理論研究部門。他甚至在理論研究的預算不斷被削減的時候，仍然設法聘請了一百名新的研究人員，成立了六個研究小組。一九七四年，他堅持聘請幾個狂放不羈的年輕人，研究當時還無人知曉的非線性動力學中的一個子題。他的副手西蒙斯（Mike Simmons）當時問道：我拿什麼來付他們的薪水？卡魯塞斯回答：想辦法找到錢！也就在他這樣膽大妄為的領導下，這個新領域蓬勃發展，羅沙拉摩斯也成為所謂混沌理論的研究重鎮。所以，如果柯文倡導的新思維是奠基於此，他樂於助他一臂之力。 另一位資深研究員，天文物理學家柯傑特（Stirling Colgate），為了不同的理由支持柯文：我們需要盡一切努力，來組織及加強本州的智識能力。He said.儘管羅沙拉摩斯已盡量對外界開放，這個地方仍然是個高高在上、與世隔絕的科學夢土。在柯傑特擔任新墨西哥採礦及技術研究院（New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology）院長的十年間，他深深了解新墨西哥州的其他部分雖然景色宜人，卻十分落後。從一九四○年代以來花在這個地方的數十億聯邦補助，對提升當地教育及工業水準不見成效。這裏最好的大學也只不過水準平平，因此，當高科技創業家想脫離擁塞的加州，轉移陣地的時候，他們通常直接越過新墨西哥州的里奧葛蘭德河谷（Rio Grande Valley），往奧斯汀或東部去。 柯傑特最近和卡魯塞斯一起致力於提升新墨西哥州的大學水準，結果他們很快就放棄，因為這個州實在太窮了。所以，柯文的研究院似乎是他們最後的一線希望。任何能夠提升這裏知識水準的事情，不但對我們個人有益、對實驗室有利，同時也符合國家的整體利益。柯傑特說。 電腦先生 資深研究員梅卓波利斯（Nick Metropolis）則是因為柯文對電腦運算的強調，而喜歡這個主意。這也是其來有自。梅卓波利斯是羅沙拉摩斯的電腦先生，早在一九四○年，羅沙拉摩斯就在他的督導下，建造了實驗室的第一座電腦。這座電腦是根據普林斯頓高等研究院的匈牙利裔傳奇數學家馮諾曼（參見天下文化公司出版的柏拉圖的天空一書）的設計改良而成的，馮諾曼當時是羅沙拉摩斯的顧問，經常來訪。羅沙拉摩斯的人稱這個電腦為瘋子（MANIAC）由數學分析器、計算機、積分儀和電腦（Mathematical Analyzer, Numerator, Integrator, And Computor）的第一個英文字母拼成。電腦模擬的藝術也是由梅卓波利斯和波蘭數學家烏蘭（Stanislas Ulam）首先開創。也要歸功於梅卓波利斯，今天羅沙拉摩斯才有全世界最大、最快的超級電腦。 但是，梅卓波利斯仍然覺得實驗室在電腦領域不夠先進，他和訪問學者麻省理工學院數學家羅他（Gian︱Carlo Rota）一起指出，電腦科學正經歷和生物學及非線性科學同樣的震盪，硬體設計起了革命性的轉變，目前一次作一個動作的電腦已經到達速度的極限了，科學家開始研究新型電腦，能夠同時作上百、上千，甚至百萬計的計算步驟。這是件好事，因為任何人如果想認真研究柯文所談到的複雜系統問題，可能都會需要像這樣的超強機器。 當然，電腦科學可以做的事還不止於此。羅他特別認為電腦可以延伸至對心智的研究，他的理念是思考和資訊處理基本上是同樣的事情。他所說的這門科學稱為認知科學（cognitive science），現在愈來愈熱門。這門科學能結合不同領域的才華，例如研究腦部細密神經網路的神經科學家、研究高層次思維及推理過程的認知心理學家、試圖把思考過程以電腦模擬的人工智慧學者，甚至還有研究人類語言結構的語言學家和研究人類文化的人類學家。 羅他及梅卓波利斯告訴柯文，這是很適合作為研究院主題的跨學門研究。 另外一位訪問學者是潘恩斯（David Pines），一九八三年仲夏，在梅卓波利斯的邀請下，他開始參與他們的討論。潘恩斯是伊利諾大學的理論物理學家、現代物理評論（Reviews of Modem Physics）的編輯及羅沙拉摩斯理論物理部門的諮詢委員會主席。他也強烈呼應柯文的科際大整合想法。從一九五○年發表博士論文開始，潘恩斯就一直專注於研究：如何以創新方式了解包含許多粒子的系統的集合行為，例如大量原子核的振動模式，或液態氦的量子流動等。而且潘恩斯也公開推測，類似的分析可能會幫助我們更進一步了解社會及組織中的人類群體行為。所以，我對這個想法有智識上的偏好。潘恩斯說。潘恩斯也同樣熱心支持柯文成立新研究院的想法，他自己在這方面經驗豐富，他曾經創辦伊利諾的高等研究中心及科羅拉多的亞斯本（Aspen）物理中心。他告訴柯文，儘管去做，他已經迫不及待想開始籌備這個研究院。我總覺得把一群非常傑出的科學家集合在一起討論新發現，是非常有趣的事情，創辦一個機構幾乎和寫一篇科學論文同樣有趣。潘恩斯說。 兩派意見僵持不下 於是，他們興致勃勃的討論創辦研究院的各種想法，偶爾還會樂昏了頭。例如，有一天，想到自己可能是在創辦新雅典一個探尋知識的重鎮，足可和過去孕育出蘇格拉底、柏拉圖、亞里斯多德的城邦並駕齊驅大家都十分興高彩烈。當然，他們也辯論許多更實際的問題：這個地方該有多大？應該招收多少學生，還是根本不收學生？和羅沙拉摩斯的關係應該有多密切？應該有固定的教職員嗎？還是科學家輪流來訪，然後就各自回他們的研究機構？逐漸的，在不知不覺間，這個假想的研究院在他們腦中變得愈來愈真實。 唯一的問題是，每個人腦中所刻劃的圖像都不一樣。我們每個禮拜都回到原點，反覆又反覆的討論。柯文說。 最嚴重的爭論點也是最根本的問題：這個研究院應該研究什麼？ 一派是梅卓波利斯和羅他，他們覺得研究院應該完全專注在電腦科學上。他們辯稱，科際大整合是很好，但是如果這群人中沒有人能下清楚的定義，又怎麼能寄望會找到人來，投下四億美金呢？像紐約的洛克斐勒研究院的規模，你差不多就需要募到這麼多錢。要籌這麼多錢並不容易，但是，如果把重心放在研究資訊處理和認知科學上，至少已經涵蓋了許多柯文所談的新科學，而且還說不定能從最近崛起、靠電腦發跡的年輕富翁手中，募到一大筆捐款。 另一派則是卡魯塞斯、潘恩斯和其他大多數人，他們覺得電腦是不錯，梅卓波利斯和羅他的經濟考慮也不無道理；但是，難道只是再辦一個電腦研究中心嗎？那能激發每個人的熱情嗎？研究院的使命應該遠勝於此，儘管他們也還不確切的知道究竟該是什麼。而這正是問題所在，正如資深研究員那戈爾（Darragh Nagle）指出的：我們並沒有把替代方案說得很清楚。每個人都同意柯文的話，新科學正在醞釀中，但是他們也僅止於模模糊糊的談論著新的思維方式，無法再向前跨出去。 柯文則一直保持低姿態。他很清楚自己的初衷是什麼，他暗地希望這會是一個生存藝術的研究院，也就意味著研究的領域將海闊天空，無所限制。但是，他同時也相信，在研究院的方向上取得共識遠比金錢或其他細節來得重要。如果這個研究院只是一個人在唱獨腳戲，那麼絕不會有什麼發展。當了三十年行政主管後，他深信要實現像這樣的夢想，唯一的辦法就是先讓參與者為之振奮。他說：你必須讓那些非常傑出的人相信這件事很重要。我不是在談民主，我指的是最頂尖的○．五％的那些人才、菁英分子。但是，一旦你說服了他們，錢儘管還是不容易籌，問題卻小多了。 因為每個人同時都還全心投入各式各樣的研究計畫，因此這就像一場慢動作的辯論。（柯文正參與一個探測太陽微中子的實驗，太陽微中子是從太陽核心放射出的、幾乎看不見的粒子。）但是，這樣的狀況維持不了太久。一九八三年八月十七日，柯文把所有的元老集合在行政大樓四樓的會議室中，告訴大家該認真一點了。他有些朋友正考慮捐一塊五十英畝或一百英畝的地作為研究院的所在地，但是他們希望至少能曉得研究院的主旨是什麼。 還是原地踏步。元老們依然和氣但堅定的分裂成兩大派系。那次會議沒有任何進展，也恰好原本答應捐地的那對夫婦幾個月後離婚了，因此撤銷了捐地的計畫。但是柯文不得不開始懷疑，這件事是不是真的會有結果。 你又說對了，葛爾曼先生 打破僵局的人是葛爾曼。加州理工學院的葛爾曼教授當時五十五歲，是粒子物理學界的老頑童。 葛爾曼在八月十七日的會議之前一個星期打電話給柯文，他說潘恩斯向他提起籌備研究院的主意，他覺得真是太棒了，他一輩子都想做一件像這樣的事情。他想要研究像古文明的興衰及現代西方文明的持續性之類跨越學門疆界的問題。曾經，他想在加州理工學院推動類似的研究，但都徒勞無功，因此，下次他到羅沙拉摩斯的時候，能不能參加討論？（葛爾曼從一九五○年代起，就是實驗室的顧問，經常來訪。） 柯文簡直不相信自己的運氣。他說：請務必來參加！葛爾曼絕對是那千分之五的頂尖人才。葛爾曼生長於紐約市，黑邊眼鏡和斑白的平頭，使他看起來好像個無邪的季辛吉（Henry Kissenger）。葛爾曼是個性急、傑出、迷人、能言善辯的人，更不要提他那近乎傲慢的自信了。事實上，不少人覺得他令人難以忍受。他從小到大都是班上最聰明的學生。已過世的狂放不羈的物理學家費曼，生前把自己暢銷的回憶錄取名為別鬧了，費曼先生（Surely You're Joking, Mr Feynman!中文版已由天下文化公司出版）；加州理工學院的人說，葛爾曼得把他的回憶錄取名為你又說對了，葛爾曼先生（Well, You're Right Again, Mr. Gell︱Mann）。當偶爾事情不順他意時，他的反應極端孩子氣，同事們會看到他的下唇突出往上翹，簡直就是在撅嘴。 儘管如此，葛爾曼顯然是二十世紀科學發展史的重要角色。當他在一九五○年代初期，以一個年輕物理博士的身分現身於科學舞台時，次原子的世界是由一個接一個隨機以希臘字母命名的粒子（π粒子、Σ粒子等）組成的大雜燴，還是一片混亂。但在二十年後，主要歸功於葛爾曼開創的新觀念，物理學家已逐漸架構出粒子間各種作用力的大一統理論（Grand Unified Theories），而且滿懷信心的把那一大堆粒子分門別類為夸克的各種組合。所謂夸克，是一種簡單的次原子基本粒子，由葛爾曼根據喬哀思（James Joyce）的小說芬尼根的覺醒（Finnegans Wake）中一個杜撰的字而命名。葛爾曼決定了近三十年來粒子物理的研究重心，他的思考方向就是其他人應該思考的方向，他知道真理何在，而且他領導大家追求他所見到的真理。一位與葛爾曼相交二十年的物理學家說。 奇怪的角色？ 表面看來，三十年來都浸淫於中子和質子內部研究的葛爾曼，在柯文科際大整合的遠景中，是個奇怪的角色；因為葛爾曼的理論正是不折不扣的化約論。但是事實上，葛爾曼興趣廣泛，對任何事物都有強烈的好奇心。他曾經在飛機上，苦苦追問鄰座陌生人的生平事跡，長達數小時。在他五歲時，他的哥哥帶他去曼哈坦公園散步，引燃他對大自然的熱愛，從而學習科學。我們把紐約市看成是個被過度砍伐的鐵杉叢林，他說。從此，他一直是個熱心的鳥類觀察家和生態保育者。他是麥克阿瑟基金會屬下的世界環境及資源委員會的主席，他也參與創辦了華盛頓的環境保護智庫世界資源研究院（World Resource Institute），同時，他還致力於挽救熱帶雨林。 除此之外，葛爾曼一生都沉迷於心理學、人類學及語言學的世界。（當初他在耶魯大學主修物理只是為了安撫父親，他的父親深怕他如果主修人類學，以後會挨餓。）每當他提到外國科學家的名字時，無論用的是哪一國語言，他都能字正腔圓的念出來。他的同事還記得有一次提到可能會去拜訪遠在愛爾蘭的姐姐。 what is her name?葛爾曼問。 吉爾思比（Gillespie）。 what does that mean?葛爾曼問。 哦，在蓋爾文（Gaelic）中大概是主教的僕人的意思。 葛爾曼沉吟片刻。不對，在中古的蘇格蘭蓋爾文中，意思應該更接近主教的宗教追隨者。 葛爾曼辯才無礙，有驚人的說服力。他可以當場發表鼓舞人心的即席演講，雖然可能還不及邱吉爾，但是他思路的清晰與內容的精采，已經是勢不可當。卡魯塞斯說。他一加入籌備研究院的討論，就力主建立一個廣博的研究院，使大多數原本贊成這個想法的人有了凝聚點，而梅卓波利斯與羅他的電腦中心構想，也就立刻黯然失色。 大顯身手的機會來臨 一九八三年聖誕節過後不久，葛爾曼真正有了大顥身手的機會。由於葛爾曼、羅他和潘恩斯都喜歡在新墨西哥州過聖誕，（事實上，葛爾曼在聖塔菲的房子剛蓋好，）柯文又召集了一次討論會，希望能讓研究院的籌備動起來。 葛爾曼去除了所有的阻礙。他告訴這群元老科學家，這些狹隘的觀念不夠偉大，我們必須為自己開創一個真正偉大的任務，也就是研究即將出現的科際大整合！他說，達爾文的生物演化論在十九世紀正是這樣一個偉大的科際大整合。演化論結合了生物學的證據（顯示動物及植物的不同物種其實互有關聯）、新興的地質學的證據（顯示地球非常古老，有悠久的歷史可追溯），還有古生物學的證據（證明遠古時代的動植物和今天的物種有很大的差異）。近代的科際大整合則是大霹靂理論，詳細描述一百五十億年前，在一次難以想像的宇宙大爆炸中，所有的星球和銀河系上的一切物質因此而開始存在。 我覺得我們應該探尋的是今天正在出現，跨越許多不同領域的科際大整合。葛爾曼說。有些已經發展成熟，例如分子生物學、非線性科學、認知科學。但是，一定還有其他整合性的科學即將出現，而這個新的研究院應該把它們一一找出來。 他補充，要盡量選擇能利用超級電腦來運算的主題，不只是因為電腦能用來模擬，而且是因為電腦本身就是個複雜系統。梅卓波利斯和羅他完全正確，電腦很可能變成科際大整合的一部分，但是不要還沒開始，就先遮住自己的眼睛；如果你真想要做這件事，就要在一開始就做對！這是他的結論。 他的話深深打動了他的聽眾。葛爾曼說：我以前也說過這樣的話，但是沒有這次那麼有說服力。 葛爾曼的精采演說是這一天的主秀。他以動人的辭藻，點出了柯文和其他大多數人費了一年時間想清楚表達的觀念。從此，大家不再有任何異議，這群科學家將致力於建立一所懷有廣泛宗旨的研究院。如果葛爾曼願意走出去緊叩捐款人的大門，也許現在正是行動的時候。但是，這個問題塵埃落定了以後，他們還要面對另外一個層次較低的問題：究竟誰來負責籌備的上作？ 每個人都理所當然的注視著同一個方向。 非你莫屬，柯文 事實上，這是柯文最不想擔任的職位。沒錯，這個研究院是他的主意，他覺得應該完成這件工作。但是，該死！他已經把成年以後的時間幾乎都花在行政工作上，已覺得很厭倦：他厭倦要不斷的爭取經費，厭倦要告訴朋友，他必須削減他們的預算；也厭倦要利用週末，悄悄完成自己的科學研究。他已經六十三歲了，他有一本筆記本，上面填滿了自己從來沒有時間研究的構想，包括探測太陽微中子，研究一種叫雙貝他衰變的極罕見放射性現象，這些都是他過去一直想研究的題目，也是今後最想做的事。 但是，當然，當潘恩斯提名他來做先頭部隊時，他點了頭。因為潘恩斯之前就和他談過提名的事情，所以柯文已經考量過整個情況，最後說服他的理由和過去誘惑他在羅沙拉摩斯當主管的理由完全相同：其他人也可以做管理工作，但是我總覺得也許他們做得不對。此外，也沒有其他人表示要挺身而出。 好吧，他告訴這群科學家，至少在找到別人接手以前，他願意扮演小母雞，把事情做好。但是，只有一個條件：他希望葛爾曼能站到幕前，發表談話。 當你募款的時候，人們希望聽到你如何解決明天的能源危機之類的話。但是，我們開頭的野心不大，只是一種看世界的新方式，要真正產出一些很有用的結果，恐怕還要經過很多年。所以你能說的只是，這位是某某教授，他為了想從事一些和你日常關心的事情更息息相關的研究，放棄了在夸克的研究。儘管他們不太確定你到底在說什麼，但是他們會注意聽。 大家都同意他的說法。於是，柯文將擔任研究院院長及實際負責人，而葛爾曼將擔任董事會主席。 人脈廣布 撇開他的