Chapter 19 Eighteen‧Review and Prospect

Will Eastern Civilization or Western Civilization determine the entire planet and dominate its future?The important task facing the current Christian civilization is to incorporate the civilizations of China, India and Japan into its own mind and into its own ideas. In any case, the end, the end of a life, a relationship, an era, even if these things are entirely contrived, contrived, fascinates the imagination, especially of a self-aware generation like ours. imagine.This generation has a belief, however superficial and incorrect, that we know where we are going and where we are going; that we know where that progress is coming from and where it is going, amidst the din of our own progress.So, when the nineteenth century is coming to an end and the twentieth century is approaching, where does today's era begin?How far have you come?Where are we going?

Answering these questions adequately means giving a condensed introduction to the basic history of the century that will pass, which such a journal article or series of articles cannot immediately provide.The scope of investigation that the author has set for himself, which is within the necessary limits, is almost uncontrollable and does not include the situation within the country.This aspect occupies so much contemporary attention with economic and social trends, and appears to many to be the only topic worthy of attention in the purest material sense.Important as these things are, they are at least certainly not all; and, while the material progress of this century has been enormous, changes in international relations and their relative importance to the nations of Europe and to all the peoples of the world are equally compelling.It is from this perspective that the author hopes to explore the topic raised above.For a specific country, this theme can be said to refer to its foreign relations.In a wider sense, however, it is concerned with the general future of the world as indicated by movements that have begun and are in progress, as well as by trends that are not yet easily discernible.These movements or tendencies, if not met with much resistance, will bring about major shifts in the political balance that are profoundly related to the welfare of mankind.

A convenient way to develop the theme seems to be that the vast colonial movement since the eighteenth century was brought to a halt by the American Revolution.The American Revolution deprived England of its wealthiest colony, followed by the French Revolution and the French Republic and Napoleon's destructive wars forced Europe to turn its attention away from external temptations and to focus on itself in internal affairs.In this regard, the purchase of Louisiana by the United States at the beginning of the nineteenth century was a heavy period, because it actually ticked off the North American continent from the list of barren lands that could be used as foreign colonization objects.There were revolts in the Spanish colonies over the next decade, and then there were statements by President Monroe and Mr. Canning.These declarations ensured the independence of the Spanish colonies by checking European interference.The American people's unwavering defense of President Monroe's position from this time forward and the later development of the Monroe Doctrine freed Spanish-speaking America to an equal degree from the possibility of additional European colonization.

This is how the nineteenth century began.Undoubtedly, people are still actively looking for space abroad, but not so much for the establishment of new colonies as for the exploitation of land already politically owned.But, on the whole, even this activity is only incidental.From its beginning to its end, the nineteenth century was dominated by the understanding and study of the forces of nature and the application of their results to meet the needs of technological and economic progress.At that time, those means that were mastered by people were so amazing when they were first invented, but they are so familiar to us today and are naturally first applied to the development and utilization of resources in various countries.There was new land everywhere, because it was impossible to make full use of nature's gifts in any one place; there was energetic investment everywhere, because there were countless things to do in any one area.So, naturally, such an era was primarily one of peace.Of course, there has been no shortage of great wars, but peace among nations has been a general feature of this age of development.In this age, people are dedicated to using new powers at their disposal to change the face of their own countries.

But any such phase will fade away, like everything else in human beings.The increase in production, which is the obsession of economists, brought, as might be expected, the need for new markets.The increase in domestic consumption caused by the improvement of life, the increase of wealth, and the rise of population could not keep up with the increase in production and the increase in the convenience of transportation caused by the use of steam.In the middle of the nineteenth century, China and Japan were driven out of their closed years and forced to establish relations with European society and do business with it.Serious, large-scale attempts abroad to acquire new political territories have largely stalled, however.People seek new bases for commercial activities only when they are sure that they will be profitable.In addition, the growth of the population and resources of the United States and the development of the British Australian colony all helped to meet the demand.The opening up of China and Japan is just a single manifestation of this need.This openness, therefore, should rather be said to be an accompaniment to the general industrial development accompanied by the progress of mechanical processing methods and the increase of communication lines.

In this situation, the nineteenth century passed its heyday and began to sink towards its end.At this time, wars and rumors of wars arose among the civilized nations of Europe.Dynasties rise and fall, and nations rise and fall on the scale of political importance.Nevertheless, the aforementioned main features persisted and were increasingly the chief concern of statesmen, the best of whom also came to the European scene at or shortly after the height of the nineteenth century. superior.In this situation, the status quo gradually became a dominant idea for purely utilitarian reasons in the economic sense.This idea is naturally admirable; but, judging from the unanimous pressure of the great powers on the Greeks and the Cretans for their own interests, perhaps we cannot regard it as noble.The question so far is, how long can the idea of ​​the status quo be promoted, in a practical sense, as a manifestation of a plausible possibility rather than a fantasy?We have found many of them some of the most vehement advocates of a universal peace, and the advocates of a universal peace are the most dissatisfied with reality of our time. Said that when half a century ago Tsar Nicholas proposed to break the established calm, When redrawing the political map of southeastern Europe according to a more reasonable and peaceful situation, he embodies the demeanor of a rational statesman in the ideal sense, while the defenders of the status quo at that time showed the style of politicians who are only swaying according to the wind. Natural nature.Evidence over the years suggests that the latter has not ensured calm, even dead calm, in this troubled region of south-eastern Europe.In view of the changing situation in the world which the dying nineteenth century bequeaths us, to what extent is it a realistic goal of European nations today to continue indefinitely the present peace and prosperity?Should the view that the uneasy swarming of clamor for general disarmament over this is most likely to preserve our present civilization and its benefits be reflected in our recent demands?No one can dream more fervently than I do that the day will come when nations will turn their swords into plows and their spears into hoes.But has European civilization, including the United States, been in a position to construct an artificial peace based not on the conscience of nations but on a permanent court, thus reproducing in modern politics the ideal state of medieval papal rule?

What is the sign of the times?They have not yet fully entered people's field of vision, and people still seem to be looking at the future through a piece of black glass, and they are not sure where they will go.But even if people can't fully and accurately decipher the signs, they can still pay attention.One of the things that can be observed, I assert, is the forward momentum common to all other first-class civilized powers except my own.Our country is bound and obsessed with our own eighteenth-century traditions, surrounded by massive demands for peace and prosperity, that is, to have plenty of bread, clinging to isolationist ideals, refusing to recognize the whole of Europe The century of civilization must look forward to and meet the future on the basis of unanimous interests.I say we do.However, I will express my thoughts more precisely by saying that the forward momentum already exists in the majority of the people in our country when specific events attract their attention.But this power has been hindered, and has been long and dangerously hindered, by those who derive their sense of conception of national policy from the creeds formed in our country's infancy.

The European state's forward momentum, largely revived after a hiatus of almost a century, was not merely a sudden, accidental phenomenon with no connection to the past.Its arrival, though unnoticed at first, became evident very soon after the mid-nineteenth century.The changes in Eastern civilized countries are also a major product of this stage, which was also not noticed at the time, although it is so eye-catching now.I have an interesting memory of this.In 1868, while I was in Yokohama, Japan, I was asked to translate a letter from Honolulu written in Spanish concerning a ship of Japanese laborers going to Hawaii.At that time I knew the man who took part in the voyage as the ship's doctor; and, if I remember correctly, he made the voyage in that capacity while I was still in Yokohama.Also, when my mission in Yokohama was over, I went to Hong Kong, and from there I returned home via the Suez Canal.Among the traveling companions to Hong Kong was a former Confederate naval officer whose errand was to negotiate for a group of Chinese to go to the southern states of the United States where there was little hope for black labor at that time.What we know now about what happened in our country was not much noticed at the time.

It is a curious thing to watch the involuntary and irresistible movements of nations, while reading our press's reaction to those who, by personal idiosyncrasy or accident, happen to be thrust into leadership positions, but at best Just a description of people channeling a harmless force like gravity that cannot be permanently resisted.The role of Tsar Nicholas I was supposed to be like this.He wanted to bring the natural course of affairs in the Balkans to a proper conclusion, and his opponents resisted strenuously; they succeeded, but the settlement was delayed and the situation worsened.Nicholas I is admired today by those who see nothing but folly in the imperial ambitions of Mr. Joseph Chamberlain and the plundering of Mr. Cecil Rhodes.But, from the point of view of a strict interpreter of the legal rights of the state, what right did Nicholas I have in his day to hasten the death of Turkey simply because he was sick?Wasn't Turkey not under the occupation of other countries at that time?Doesn't Turkey have a right, strictly by law, to exist, to keep what it owns, to govern by any means it thinks right about its legitimate subjects?However, it is still too easy for people to forget this point: the law upholds justice, but in today's world, justice cannot be obtained with the law alone without power; the rationality of the law does not depend on power, but its effectiveness depends on The latter confers.

A term that has become familiar to us these days is that of a buffer state, the role played by Siam between the British and French spheres of influence.This word is somewhat reminiscent of the relationship between Eastern and Western civilizations so far.On the one hand, they are separated from each other and exist in their own worlds; on the other hand, they are approaching each other, which is not only reflected in geography, but also in the fact that both parties value material advantages.These two poles are not two branches from the same source but are currently at different stages of development. They originate from very different concepts and have evolved along two completely different paths from the beginning to the present.In order for them to have a common language with each other, one of them needs to transform into the other, instead of developing independently.

What is the dominant spiritual vision of today's Christian nation in the future has hardly been a question of the twentieth century.Whatever the tendency or degree of change in people's beliefs, it is unlikely that it will undergo radical transformation in the short time before the dawn of the twentieth century.The influence of Christianity will undoubtedly continue throughout the century to come.The rise and fall of an idea is necessarily gradual, and if it were possible for the Christian faith to spread to the greatest extent in the Eastern countries, the latter would gradually assimilate those principles which have so powerfully transformed the nature of the Western peoples.On the other hand, as many people say today, if we lose faith, if there is nothing higher than self-interest to motivate people to self-discipline and justice, war will only be possible when the balance of interests makes people unnecessary. It is only absurd when resorting to violence.And those who feel needy don't just seek what they want when they have a legitimate opportunity;The European world knew this, but the growing sanctity of public opinion and its rising influence over the political balance only partially extricated it from it.The Eastern world is ignorant of the sources behind the material advantages and political traditions of the Western world which endow the West with authority, but it is clearly admiring both; While the French Revolution brought to a long standstill the foreign colonial expansion that had characterized the eighteenth century, the enthusiasm of all nations was clearly directed towards another aspect, namely, the creation of large modern standing armies.This is a consequence of the universal military service that the French Revolution bequeathed to us, in addition to the elaboration of human rights.This kind of army has been developed since the beginning of the nineteenth century, and after continuous improvement, it has become very mature and powerful by the end of the nineteenth century, which is reflected in the scale, reserve force, organizational training and equipment.Economists, however, have long worried about this, complaining about the existence of the vast armament and calling for its abolition.In the nineteenth century, liberty was developed and strengthened, and so was the Army.So is this 19th-century oddity merely a mutated result of human behavior, as many insist?Or perhaps contained in it the character of the age to come? What was the effect of these large armies?Undoubtedly varied.On the economic side, production has declined and the demands on people's time and lives have increased.All kinds of such malpractices or problems are buzzing around our ears every day that there is no need to repeat them here.But didn't a large army benefit those who paid for it at all?In today's era when authority is being weakened and all kinds of constraints are being loosened, the young people of the country go to a large school to learn discipline, obedience and respect for others, to systematically strengthen their physique, and to accept virtues such as self-discipline, bravery and fortitude Is there no value in cultivating oneself?Wouldn't it make sense for young people from far and wide to come together and learn how to work and behave together, to communicate heart to heart, and to bring back to civilian life the respect for established authority that our times so desperately need?It is instructive to look at the countenance and manner of some recruits who are just beginning their training, and compare them with the appearance of mature soldiers.Military training isn't a bad way to learn to live an active life, and it's no more time-consuming than college.Mutual respect among nations for each other's strengths makes wars less frequent and peace more secure; and if a catastrophe does come, it passes quickly and things quickly return to normal, is it not to be seen?Today, wars are not only less frequent but more of a fleeting excess, from which recovery is easy; a century or more ago war was a recurrent disease.Moreover, martial spirit and readiness to fight for a just cause are more commonly possessed today than were formerly employed as soldiers.Today, military power serves the country as a whole, not just the king. In predicting the future, I base my predictions on some peculiarities of our time: in the decade leading up to the French Revolution, the wave of political colonization stalled.For the next quarter of a century, the nations of Europe threw themselves into an all-out war.With the realization of peace, a great era of coal and iron, technology and industrial development came.At the same time, the development of existing colonies and new commercial centers, especially in China and Japan, rather than further colonial expansion, became the most prominent feature of the era.Finally, at the end of the nineteenth century, political colonization regained its former momentum, but this time it was undoubtedly encouraged by people in the old colonies scattered around the world.At the same time as the above-mentioned changes took place, a huge standing army gradually developed; on the other hand, the East also entered the sphere of interests of the West, but not just as a passive person driven by people, it had its own vitality.This force is not well organized, but still meaningful.The astonishing developments in Japan are the most obvious example of the unmistakable vitality that has emerged in many areas that were once dead but not yet stagnant.In India, while there is no prospect of another mutiny, there are plenty of signs of a political awakening among the local populace under foreign rule.They are increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo and hope that India itself can gain greater autonomy.Because of its appreciation of the West's material and political cultural virtues, this current is no more threatening now than previous insurrections, but its future effects are much more disturbing. As for China, I know relatively little, but many observers firmly believe that there is a great latent force in the Chinese personality.So far this force has been mainly manifested in the Chinese people's persistence in sticking to established traditions.The conservatism of the Chinese is largely due to ignorance of better conditions in other lands, but it is also closely related to the extraordinary endurance of this race, the consistency of purpose, and the firmness and vitality of its basic constituent units.For these units, the pursuit of individual material progress is nonsense.China suffered a crushing defeat in the war with Japan a few years ago to an extent that, while unexpected, was not unthinkable.But that doesn't change the fact that China has the best resources, though poorly exploited; that China has a large, ethnically homogeneous population, and that it is growing rapidly.It has been seen that the Turkish army is recovering its strength in recent years; it cannot, then, be considered impossible for China to effectively deploy its potential forces to fully develop its own military capabilities.In this regard, the Japanese have shown great talent, but they have not encountered much resistance.Moreover, it is much easier to change an island nation of forty million people than a vast continental nation with nearly ten times as many inhabitants.To be sure, changes in China have been relatively slow.But the factors that have long united the Chinese, who are so many different and different from each other, will in future ensure that they are swayed by the same passion, so that any change in the general sense will be far-reaching. It may not be true to assert that some of the above-mentioned selective features sum up the overall tendency of a century of complex human life as independent factors in the aspects we examine in looking to the future.It is safe to say, however, that, because of the rather distant future to which these factors relate, they have been given less consideration than others of lesser importance; The school of political thought complains, criticizes and denounces.This faction matured and still lives in the conception of the progressive stage of industry in the mid-nineteenth century, which looked at everything from the point of view of production and domestic development.This school of thought has exerted powerful influence throughout the world, but nowhere has it been so prevalent as in America.This is both because no neighboring country has the power to compete with us, and the necessity of military build-up is not too urgent for us to be given much attention, but also because, with our abundant resources only partially exploited, we The instinct to expand outward is dormant.While the eyes of the European world turned from inward to outward, the American people diverted their attention from foreign affairs.The well-known natural conditions in the United States have strengthened and continued this trend.Compared with continental Europe, the United States has a larger territory, perhaps a better mix of resources, and a much smaller population.So, despite the arrival of a great number of immigrants, we still have a great deal to do in terms of our own internal development; for this reason, the drive towards the outside world which is so clearly manifested in European countries today has not yet been experienced on our part. arrive.Still, the very fact that we are isolated from the general tendencies of our species is food for thought. For the reasons mentioned above, we cannot focus solely on domestic and economic issues, refusing to consider the organization and maintenance of military power and the extension of our nation's influence beyond our own borders on the pretext that there is enough for us at home.Such policies are easy to implement, but short-sighted.In adopting such policies, we are less comprehensive today than our predecessors were two generations ago.The latter do not appreciate the suffocating influence of the views of the school of economics, which have not yet acquired a dominant influence by the time they grow up.But this influence is still maintained today, because the people who spent their youth under this influence have not yet withdrawn from the stage of history.Each generation is destined to be harnessed by those whose ideas belong essentially to the preceding one.In this way, the continuity of a state's behavior will be interrupted with relatively little or no interruption.But, on the other hand, this situation blinds people to the spirit of the age, because its rulers speak the voice of a bygone age and act according to it.While writing this article, an American magazine made a sharp contrast between Lord Salisbury's approach on the Crete issue and Mr. Gladstone's vivid discussion of the failure of great power coordination.But, in fact, although these two British statesmen belonged to traditionally opposed parties, they were in the final analysis soaked and dominated by the ideas of the mid-nineteenth century, and the breakdown of the calm situation was regarded as the greatest evil.If Mr. Gladstone were in power, it is difficult to believe that there could be any other object of equal importance in his eyes than the maintenance of peace.As Lord Salisbury was no doubt sympathetic to the Greeks, so Mr Gladstone would doubtless be, but he would still be willing to preserve the co-ordination of the Great Powers on Crete, so long as he believed that doing so alone would suffice. Avoid war. The same atmosphere dominated post-Civil War America.In its consequences, this war was far more a true revolution than the struggle of the thirteen colonies of North America against England.It compels our people, whether in the South or the North, to withdraw their eyes from external problems, and to focus their minds, driven by a passion, on a domestic conflict: in which one side, animated by the desire to gain independence, The other side is inspired by the lofty ideal of maintaining unity.But those who directed the war belonged to an era that was passing away even then.The influence of these men in their youth regained their former momentum with the return of peace and was reflected in the expulsion of Napoleon III from Mexico, the acquisition of Alaska by the United States, and the purchase of the Danish Islands and Samana Bay by the United States on the negotiation.However wise these later moves were, their unique significance was that they signaled a revival of the traditions of an older generation.But this tradition was out of tune with the new generation who quickly came to power, and it was set aside. This generation, too, is now receding, and new successors are filling their place.Should they, then, be aware of certain phenomena in the external world situation and acknowledge their influence, and then formulate, How about amending your own policy? To this, the author, as a member of a generation that is leaving the stage, will give an affirmative answer.It seems to me that, through the ups and downs of the world, we are at the entrance of an era in which we will give a definitive answer to the perhaps long-delayed question: whether Eastern civilization or Western civilization will determine the entire planet and dictate its future?At present, the important task facing the civilized Christian world is to integrate into its own bosom and into its own ideas the many ancient and foreign civilizations that surround it, first of all the civilizations of China, India and Japan.This is one of its great missions, which it must fulfill, or there will be nothing but destruction.The history of the nineteenth century is a history of the continual and increasing pressure of our own civilization on those older.Even today, if we look around, we can see everywhere a restlessness, an awakening from sleep.This awakening, though largely twilight, is real; and though it has so far shown no coherence, it is enough to make one realize that the power which has violently interrupted their dreams for centuries has at least There are two great advantages for them, great power and material prosperity. It is vain to predict what the final result will be, for we have no speculative material in our hands.However, it is not impossible to observe the current situation and make some realistic considerations.From these reflections, perhaps we can know what to do in the present, and that civilization which we judge to be most positive not only for the future of our race, but for the world as a whole, may also have reason to predominate.We don't live in a perfect world, nor can we expect to deal with imperfect realities in ideally perfect ways.Time and staying power can only be won by the vulgar, imperfect, but not negligible arbiter of power.Power has produced some of the greatest positive results in the changing history of humanity.When the balance between people on different planes of thought, without common standards, is dangerously disturbed, it can only be corrected by force.If faith is absent from ourselves, if the direction of progress of our own civilization is the extinction of those spiritual beliefs upon which it is based, the power is all the more real. These words do not imply an unkind attitude towards other ancient civilizations, although it should be admitted that the latter's concepts do not coincide with ours.As long as a person believes that the peoples of all nations who inhabit the surface of the earth were created by God with the same blood, he can only oppose any act of hostility to other human beings who are not of the same race as himself.However, there is no need to resent the latter in order to show that the victory of the Romans over the Carthaginians was positive for mankind.We today, and people of any age, probably owe Caesar a debt of gratitude.Decades after the end of the Punic Wars, he greatly expanded the scope of Rome's rule, greatly expanded and consolidated the foreign fortifications of Rome's civilization and regime.Thus these defensive arrangements delayed for centuries the eventual collapse of Rome when the day came when Rome's power shrunk under the blows of foreign conquerors.Moreover, the tribes which had been barbarians when they began to harass Rome were no longer alien to Roman civilization when they inherited the Roman Empire.On the contrary, they had already mastered the essence of Roman thought, accepted Roman law, and converted to Christianity. Maugham says: The significance of Rome's conquest of what is now France and its first contact with the inhabitants of what is now Germany and England should be considered in relation to the general course of world history.The destruction of the great Celts by Caesar's war across the Alps was not the most important result of this great pioneering operation, which was far more positive than negative.There can hardly be any doubt that, had the Roman Senate continued to exist formally for a few generations, the alien invasion of Rome would have occurred four hundred years earlier than it actually did, and that civilization had occurred in Italy before it had occurred in Gaul. , the Danube Valley or the moment when Africa and Spain took root.Caesar felt hostility to the Roman-Greek world from the Germanic tribes. For this reason, he established a new active defense system with his iron fist, teaching people to use rivers and artificial barriers to defend the frontiers of the empire. The consideration of fending off enemies further afield included the barbarian tribes closest to the Roman frontier for colonization and augmented Rome's army by conscripting soldiers from enemy states.In this way, Caesar bought Greco-Italian civilization the time to bathe the whole of the West in itself.By the time people realized that Alexander not only established a short-lived kingdom in the East, but also passed Greek civilization to the East, many centuries had passed.Likewise, centuries have passed us by when one realizes that Caesar not only conquered a new territory for the Romans, but also laid the foundations for the Romanization of the Western world.It was only later that one could appreciate the significance of Caesar's expeditions to England and Germany, which were militaryly insignificant and brought little immediate advantage at the time. From time to time history expresses its prudence by means of the actions of such great men as Caesar.More often than not, far-reaching historical currents spring from untraceable roots and motives, although successive steps of change can be seen and their results explained.The great figures in history are only pushed forward by this trend. At most, they are the representatives of the people rather than the drivers, and they are the guides rather than the masters.The same is largely true today.After a period of relative calm, the people of the civilized world of Europe are now once again expanding, not only to occupy all the barren lands of the earth, but also to hold in their hands the buffer zone that has always separated them from those ancient countries.But who will say that this massive movement is only the reflection of the ideas of one or a few people like Caesar?Whatever the cause of this movement, it is not an individual person.As soon as the masses perceive a need, they act accordingly.However, people do not have the lack of cognitive ability like animals, they will ask, where are we going?What should our goals be?Are the current trends leading us towards a general peace, widespread disarmament and permanent arbitration treaties?Is it a prelude to mutual understanding and recognition of opposing traditions and ways of living and thinking?Would such recognition occur today in areas where Easterners and Westerners collide?Does this engagement herald the swift demise of great armies and navies, and determine the wisdom of abandoning the organized armed forces which they at present embody?And what would actually happen if disparate civilizations collided directly without any transition zone between them? Human beings living in other civilizations have an absolute advantage in numbers.Moreover, it is composed of basic units with considerable energy.Only a marked lack of political and social organizational skills kept them from cohesiveness.This is chiefly the reason for their inferiority in material development compared with us.But just because they don't have or can't have material prosperity doesn't mean they're less interested in it.如果一個群體對什麼有所需要卻又無力用使用武力之外的方法得到它，它就會訴諸武力，除非他們也為武力所制。在世界歷史上。外族衝破由象愷撒這樣有著睿智的長遠眼光的人針對他們設立的屏障並蜂擁而入的景象並非沒有先例。這種情形更容易發生，如果這道屏障無人把守，或為那些早已失去尚武精神的人們所遺棄或忽視。 不過，即使在這種形勢下，如果能恰當地選擇地理上的要點，恰當地將邊界向外推展，還是可以贏得時間，在很大程度上阻滯災難的到來並使全域轉為對世界有利。這樣，及時地確定有關地點有什麼實際價值以及從何處開始佔領就極為重要了。今天歐洲國家的大規模向外拓展活動的意義至少部分地在於此。自覺地或者不自覺地，這些活動正將我們文明的前哨向前推移，並鞏固使其得以生存的防禦陣線。 這正是我們通常稱為舊世界的地區的變化趨勢。和範圍廣大、人口眾多的外部世界相比，維繫著我們的利益和牽掛、我們的希望和憂慮的歐洲文明就像沙漠中的一個綠洲。如同在商業和軍事方面一樣，這個最高級的文明在政治發展和物質繁榮方面也大大地走在了世界其他文明的前面。這歸功於它的子孫的勃勃生機與活力。在過去的半個多世紀中，我們的文明在技術和科學方面取得的成就提供了種種手段，使我們的繁榮程度得以成倍地上升，並同樣地拉大了我們和既無機會也無才智來使用這些成果的外部世界在物質福利上的差距。此外，伴隨著財富的巨大增加，要求解除武裝的呼聲出現了，似乎我們這個種族業已融為一體，而且普遍和平不僅已經實現，更是不可逆轉。但是，即使在我們自己的疆界之內，難道情況確已發展至如此地步以至於可以欣然解散我們稱為員警的這種特殊的力量？ 儘管歐洲大陸上還有著內部的猜忌和摩擦，但歐洲大家庭的一致性還是體現在了上述廣泛開展的偉大運動中。它最終的積極意義是不可置疑的，這已為英國在印度和埃及的統治對於這種統治，武力不僅起促進作用，而且必不可少所表明。目前，印度和埃及是這種積極意義的兩個最鮮明的例證所在；不過，這種意義是基於握在開明與公正之手中的寶劍的威力。當然，糾纏於不時出現的一些缺陷和錯誤的細節有可能令人對這個結論感到疑惑，並使問題的真正癥結模糊不清。不過，若廣泛地留意一下結果，那麼，無可辯駁的就是，上述地區不僅發生了巨大進步，而且這是以訓練有素的武裝力量的持續存在與發揮作用為前提的。 歐洲世界針對著外部世界的一致尤其有意識地體現在了英國的帝國聯邦設想中。經過許多挫折和反覆，這種思想已在英國人民及其殖民地上的居民的思維之中牢固地紮下根來。英國人民及英國政治家希望培植英美兩國之間的情誼並將這兩個國家拉得更近的意向也反映了這種考慮。對於這種意向，巴爾福先生曾作用種族親情這個詞來形容。無疑，這個詞用在英語大家庭的身上最貼切不過了。不過，在未來的某個時刻，它可能會被推而廣之以涵蓋所有其當代文明產生於同一久遠的源泉的種族。在筆者看來，將來的各種問題的解決方法都蘊藏於這個詞之中了。但是，在美國這邊，對於英國的意向只有一些不冷不熱的反應。其原因在於我們還死抱著十九世紀中葉的狹隘觀念，習慣於眼睛向內，看不到自己擔有什麼責任。如果英國和美國兩個國家不能找到共同語言，它們怎麼會走到一起呢？在一個其政治活動遍佈全世界的國家和一個隻關注於自己的內部政治糾紛的國家之間，怎麼會有真摯的親情呢？當我們真正開始放眼世界並且為履行自己對於整個世界的責任而辛勞之時，我們應和英國攜起手來，而且不能不認識到這點：在未來的多事之秋，人類的最美好的希望就寄託在英語種族之間心與心的聯合之中。 在決定一個國家的責任之時，地理上的遠近是最顯而易見、最普通的依據所在。如果將美國看成是歐洲大家庭的成員，那麼這個大家庭與世界未來的聯繫最鮮明地體現在了太平洋這個歐洲世界與東方相會之處。由於水路交通的巨大便利，在兩側為歐洲家庭的成員所毗鄰的太平洋再也不能將那些由同一母親所生的子女：希臘或羅馬傳統的繼承者以及後來的條頓征服者們分割開來，而只能將其聯繫到一起。今天，相比於現代輪船穿越大西洋需用的時間，一列快速火車可以在更短的時間內橫穿大陸，將一些旅客從太平洋海岸送至太平洋海岸。不過，若要進行相對效益更高的大宗運輸，海運還是比陸運具有優勢。美洲的太平洋海岸和東部的聯繫為沙漠或山巒所阻，但在這兒有著歐洲文明的前哨陣地。為此，歐洲大家庭的最重要的任務之一就是將其與自己的主體更緊密地連接起來，並且通過將從東方或西方通向它的道路置於自己監控之下來予以保護。 將來出現的貫穿中美地峽的運河的重大意義以及加勒比海考慮地峽問題就不免會涉及該地區的重要性正是基於上述政治事實而非純粹的商業好處。無論將來的運河是在尼加拉瓜還是巴拿馬，它的根本意義在於它將歐洲文明的疆界尤其是美國的疆界推進了數千英里，並且將身處歐洲文明之中的美洲國家體系編織得更為緊湊。這樣的一條海上要道必須處於控制之下，而加勒比海就是這種控制力的天然來源，正如對蘇伊士運河的控制要以地中海為基地一樣。夏威夷則是地峽運河的一個前哨，發揮的是亞丁或馬爾他對於蘇伊士運河、或這條運河開通之前馬爾他對於印度所起的作用。歐洲文明的一個最重要的神經中樞就在於加勒比海的島鏈之上。不過，令人遺憾的是，其中極為重要的一部分島嶼目前正處於那些從未給予開發的國家的掌握之中，實際上這種開發乃是其普遍利益所要求的。 放眼未來，橫亙在我們和歐洲國家面前的問題有著根本的意義。而不是僅關係到簡單的利益得失。當前的一代人應對其後代負責，無所作為或三心二意只能意味著對這種責任的無視。在時機來臨之時未能把握住它可能會給我們的後人招致問題和困難；如果我們及時地預見到它們，由其而生的血與淚的代價或許能被避免。因此，這種意義上的預防措施其實是防禦性而非進攻性的。而且，如我們從土耳其身上觀察到的，靠投機取巧或怯懦的躲避並不能無限期地阻止頹勢發展為不可收拾。如果不能抓住時機採取果敢的措施以拯救父母的生命或集體的福祉，情形只會越來越糟。今天，雖然歐洲正在遙遠的地方大舉推進，但它仍然容忍在其身上存有或許將使其血液流幹的創傷，仍然允許一些在未來極具重要性的地區為那些時間的流逝已日益證明毫無希望進行政治和社會變革的制度所統治。這是一個不祥之兆，將來這些地區或許會成為蠻族對我們進行外來佔領的前哨基地。 我們還應憑著清晰、冷靜而又堅定的目光來注意這樣的事實：處於不同的物質繁榮和進步程度之上、有著不同的精神觀念和不同的政治能量的各種文明正在迅速地靠攏。認識到這點對我們自身至關重要，尤其是在我們將此視為對於自己所屬種族的責任的一部分的時候。歷史上阿拉伯人和土耳其人對歐洲的入侵之所以在一開始就受到了抑制並且後來退縮了回去，原因就在於其所面對的民族雖然由於內部不和與衝突而陷於分裂之中，但依然充滿了戰鬥精神，甘願為自己的權利而戰，甚至為其獻身。憑藉著上帝的安排，當今時代，在歐洲社會取得了巨大的物質繁榮的同時，又產生出了一種與此相對的、被人們貶稱為軍國主義的平衡物，正是它將歐洲變為了一個由隨時準備戰鬥的士兵組成的龐大軍營。在這種背景下，無視將來的可能危險的裁軍呼籲實屬不合時宜，它和各國的所作所為相對立。而後者恰恰能在當前的形勢中找到充分的依據，並且表現為對於目前只有極少數人意識到的危險的不自覺的準備。 在陸地方面，歐洲國家的龐大陸軍的存在及其人民的向外開拓熱情確保了他們的後代將世代相續，直至對維護捍衛歐洲文明的障礙之物最終消失。在海洋方面，則沒有哪個歐洲文明國家比美國擔負著更多的責任了。在加勒比海事務上，我國人民對於某個歐洲國家的侵滲活動的本能的反對如此地無力以至於都引發不起爭端。這種狀況要求我們以調配得當的武裝力量來支持我們的立場，就像歐洲大陸國家相互間的疑忌促使它們要保持龐大的陸軍一樣。不過，如果我們在某個地區將其他國家排除了出去，我們也就承擔起了在該地區維護歐洲文明大家庭的利益的責任。地峽和加勒比海就是這樣的地區。 地峽連同將來的運河以及在兩個方向上通往它的道路將把美洲大陸的東岸和西岸連接起來。在這方面，美國已堅決表明它有著特殊的利益。在目前美國盡可以堅持它的立場，但它只能通過創建對於在加勒比居於統治地位必不可少的海上力量從而在未來履行它的職責。門羅主義在邏輯上的必然結果就是美國擁有一支強大的海軍力量。對此，那些希望不付出任何代價就能保持住和平的人也許會哀歎不止。但是，只有對戰爭做好準備才能確保和平。 愚昧與否的標準不在於物質的繁榮，甚至不在於政治發展，而在於人的內心，在於精神信念。在高尚的精神能被給予足夠的時間和空間以便在愚昧民族的身上生根、發芽之前，我們必須借用物質力量來防範財富使我們沉迷於安樂之中。去除精神因素，我們的文明也是未開化的東西。那些只知在物質上效仿我們卻不汲取我們的深邃精神的文明的群體更乃愚昧之人。 我們可以希冀和平，這是人類必然期待實現的目標，但我們不能幻想像一個男孩從樹上硬扭下一個酸蘋果那樣得到和平。無視我們面前的形勢，或者通過和戰爭給人們帶來的驚憂和恐懼進行片面的對比來誇大寧靜、繁榮和舒適的魅力，和平也不會來到我們身邊。人類永遠不會屈從或信服純粹的功利主義考慮，它的信仰也永遠不會為和平所支配，如果後者僅表現為股票市場的保護神的話。無論二十世紀將帶給我們什麼，十九世紀思想中戰士們的英雄主義和堅忍精神今天仍在發生作用，將成為傳統中最崇高最有價值的財富。