Chapter 32 2.2 Essentials of Intelligence Operations

homework guidelines Our approach to US intelligence operations, in a word, is nothing more than the principle of applying tide calculators and astronomical navigation methods.That is to say, it is our guiding principle to eliminate subjective assumptions and random guesses, put ourselves in the position of a calm third party, make reasonable efforts to find out the truth, and always use this rational method.Moreover, strive to improve intelligence technology, and strive to control the error of work results within 20%. A tide calculator is a machine that predicts the time of high and low tides, the height of the sea surface, and calculates past tides.Provide the required data to the various factors that make up the tide, and calculate the desired tide through integration.Assuming that we want to know A, we must first analyze the various factors that constitute A subjectively, then give different data to each factor, synthesize the data, and finally find the answer to A.

However, subjectively, the factors that constitute A are sometimes not comprehensive, and sometimes redundant factors are added.Moreover, the data given for various factors may not all be correct.As a result, the answers obtained by synthesis often do not match the actual situation.Therefore, if it is possible to evaluate whether the answer is correct or not and the degree of error, it is necessary to find out the factors that cause the error and correct the data provided to the factors one by one.This is repeated several times, and the error is gradually reduced.This is similar to the essentials of using celestial navigation method to measure ship position.That is to say, when calculating the ship's position according to the sun and stars, the more astronomical measurements are made, the more accurate the position will be.

intelligence data The types and contents of the intelligence materials we can obtain are roughly as follows: 1. The report of the combat troops Mainly reports on operations, mostly telegrams, but also written and oral reports.However, as the battle situation progressed, our technical capabilities gradually declined. Therefore, the content of some reports must be understood analytically and at a discount.The reports we received generally overestimated the damage done to the enemy.Needless to say, misidentifying the type of ship, there are also cases of mistaking whales for submarines and other situations caused by the battlefield psychology of suspicion and ghosts.And so on, not uncommon.

For example, on September 10, 1944, the Guantong Station in Davao (located in Mindanao, the Philippines) rashly judged the ripples at the mouth of the bay to be landing boats, and spread false rumors, added branches and leaves, and finally turned into enemy ships painted with camouflage. This unfounded report of amphibious tanks advancing towards Davao Airport 2 has thrown my entire local unit into chaos.As mentioned above, on August 1, 1945, when the war was about to end, the Guantong Station mistook the gleaming sea surface of nocturnal insects for an enemy convoy. There was a scandal of ordering troops into decisive battle deployment.In addition, the Kaohsiung Garrison Office notified the entire army of the information leaked by the personnel on board the US aircraft carrier that came to attack Taiwan about the organization of the US aircraft carrier force and the name of the ship, one of which was named the USS Shebre.This is an example of clever deception by captives.There are many similar examples.It turns out that the Sherble is a modified practice aircraft carrier on Lake Michigan (one of the Great Lakes in the United States), and it cannot sail down the St. Lawrence River until it sails to the open sea.

The report of the naval force is extremely important information, but its content must be carefully studied before choosing or rejecting it. 2. Communications Intelligence The communication information of the special agent squad of the military command is very useful information.However, this is unprocessed raw intelligence data, nothing more than a piece of data.Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate with reference to other materials.It is very dangerous to use communications intelligence without doing so.There are also such examples: the war department is confused by communications intelligence, is too superstitious, and suffers setbacks unknowingly.

3. Broadcasting in the United States American radio stations provided a lot of very useful information on domestic production and operational problems.We listened to and used these broadcasts through units such as Squad K directly under the Intelligence Department of the Military Command.Needless to say, in this case, it is necessary to screen the opponent's propaganda. 4. Reports of Naval Attachés Stationed Abroad Mainly reports from my naval attachés in Argentina, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden and Germany.In Sweden, magazines such as the American "Newsweek" can be obtained, and they can be sent to Tokyo by courier via the Trans-Siberian Railway.

5. Newspapers and magazines The American newspapers and magazines obtained through neutral countries are outdated, but they are of great value to intelligence work, and are very helpful in collecting photos of ship types. 6. Allied News Agency It is very useful to make full use of the foreign news obtained by the Tongmeng News Agency (now Kyodo News Agency), especially as information for understanding the domestic situation in the United States.However, there were mistranslations especially of military terminology so we decided to use the English originals we heard. 7. Captives The sources of wartime intelligence data were extremely limited, and the data provided by the prisoners greatly made up for this deficiency.

8. Seized Documents Its accuracy is almost 100% except in special cases. This kind of information is the most valuable for intelligence work.What we seized were mainly documents carried by the crew of the plane.The US military's Okinawa landing operation plan (a top-secret document of about 200 pages) played a very important role in the preparations for the decisive battle in our homeland.Most of the seized documents are described in idiomatic terms, and the term gas (gas) is included in these documents. Some people in our navy thought that the enemy was preparing to use gas (chemical weapons) and panicked.According to the Ministry of Intelligence's explanation: In the United States, it is customary to call gasoline gas and car gas stations gas stations.

9. Information from Germany Information about Europe is another matter. There is much information about the United States that cannot be accepted as it is.In particular, Germany's judgment on the combat power of the United States tends to be underestimated compared with ours.However, with the landing of the Allied forces in Normandy in June 1944 as a turning point, the German army's estimate of the US military suddenly increased.The author felt at the time: Germany's fate is doomed.So there is this feeling because unlucky people tend to think that the opponent is stronger than they actually are.

four stages of work We engage in intelligence operations against the United States in accordance with the following principles: The first stage of operation (the stage of collecting intelligence data) Despite our efforts to obtain valuable information, the rudimentary nature of our intelligence agencies and the general indifference of our Navy to intelligence work have led us to admit that we have done a lot with little success.The types and contents of the intelligence materials that can be obtained are as mentioned above. The second stage of work (evaluation stage) A judgment is made on the value of the information obtained.Through the careful analysis, arrangement and accumulation of the obtained data, the scale of evaluation can be obtained.Moreover, by doing this operation repeatedly, the so-called intelligence vision will be developed naturally.Relying on this kind of scale and intelligence vision, we can accurately select and identify mixed materials, and make appropriate evaluations.

In principle, the evaluation and judgment of the data is carried out by the competent staff, but reserve officers can be quite reliably competent for this task after roughly two years of training. The evaluated intelligence materials are accumulated in detail and categorized. This mechanical operation is handled by a full-time reserve officer. The third stage of work (refinement stage) Compare the results obtained from the accumulated data with the enemy's actual movements in order to test the accuracy of the work results.Correct the results of the operation to make them consistent with the actual enemy situation, and at the same time find out the cause of the error, and strive to cultivate a sharper intelligence vision.Repeated inspections in this way can improve the proficiency of intelligence operations, and gradually reduce operational errors, and the intelligence is getting closer and closer to the truth. The fourth stage of homework (judgment stage) By integrating the results of various factors obtained in the third stage of work, it is possible to make a judgment on the required matters.Needless to say, how the third stage works determines the accuracy of the judgment. Compare and test the results of the fourth stage of operations with the actual situation of the enemy's combat, find out the cause of the error, and make it close to the real situation. This method is the same as that of the third stage. Here are a few specific examples of our intelligence operations to illustrate the essentials of judging the usable ships of the United States in the war against Japan and the essentials of judging the enemy's combat intentions. The Essentials of Calculating Usable Ships for War Against Japan 1. Shipbuilding status The first stage of operations is the investigation of shipbuilding plans and shipbuilding capabilities. The second stage of work, shipbuilding on the table (drawing charts). The third stage of work is to check and correct the work results. The above details will be elaborated in the section on the judgment of the period when the United States formally counterattacked Japan. Second, the results Always exercise objective, reasoned, and calm judgment.The details will be detailed in the section on judging the results of the battle. 3. Repair Investigate ships temporarily removed from combat missions due to injuries and repairs. Repairs are divided into regular maintenance and damage repairs: 1. Regular maintenance Divided into new and specific repairs of the bottom of the ship.Usually, the former is roughly once a year, and the latter is roughly once every four years.But in wartime, the former time is slightly extended, and it is carried out at the same time as minor repairs.Specific repairs are generally not carried out except in particularly necessary circumstances. 2. Damage repair The time required for damage repair is estimated as follows: Seriously injured for about three months. Minor injuries (equivalent to one torpedo hit) for about a month. The location of the repair (Pacific side) is speculated as follows: Puget Sound (near Seattle) primarily repairs aircraft carriers and battleships. San Francisco area Huntas Point mainly repairs aircraft carriers and battleships. Isle of Mull repairs medium and small ships. Small ships under repair at Bethleyham Dockyard. San Pietro, San Diego under repair, small ship. In addition, rush repairs or even minor repairs are carried out at the advanced bases or bases, and the locations are speculated as follows: pearl harbor Espiritu Santo (New Hebrides) Manus Island (Admiralty Islands, northern New Guinea) Ulrich Islands (Western Caroline Islands) Guam 3. The time when you cannot participate in the war Estimate the time required for repairs and round trips, and judge the time when you cannot participate in combat. 4. Information Based on the following information, it is speculated that the name (or type) of the ship that cannot participate in the battle, the degree of damage, the location of the repair, and the time when it cannot participate in the battle. 1. Information about the captives This is very valuable. 2. Enemy reports This is more accurate, especially with regard to aircraft carriers and battleships, after returning to the front, sometimes quite detailed reporting is done, but the reporting time is mostly long after the injury. 3. The report of our troops After the war, the losses suffered by the enemy are often exaggerated, so it can only be used as a reference. 4. Forces other than those in the war against Japan 1. To serve as the military force for the European operations Mainly based on German intelligence and enemy reports to speculate. 2. Education and training and the coastal guard force of the country Mainly based on the intelligence of the captives. 3. Loans to Allies This is a loan to allies under the Arms Lending Act, mainly from enemy reports. In a certain period of time, comprehensively examine the above conditions to judge the ships that will be responsible for the war against Japan. The Essentials of Judging the Enemy's Combat Attempts According to the above work essentials, it is judged that the U.S. naval forces (including the Marine Corps and aviation forces), army forces (including the aviation forces) and the merchant navy are currently in charge of fighting against Japan and may be used in the future.It is on the basis of these forces that we judge the enemy's combat intentions. Our unit has a data room of about 160 square meters, in which there are statistical charts for judging the data of the enemy's combat attempts.The method of making these charts and the essentials of judging the enemy's intentions from them are, in today's terminology, a kind of operations research.Electronic computers are now being used, but at that time we did not have such equipment, so a lot of manpower was needed to replace machine work.Simply put, the method we adopt is to use statistics as the main body to judge the enemy's combat attempts. We produced a ruler such as "The Combat Habits of the Enemy" as an assistant semi-finished product for this intelligence operation.Statistical charts in the data room are also part of it.This scale includes the following aspects, which are used to measure the enemy's recent movements and intentions, and to make comprehensive judgments in comparison with other necessary scales to determine the time and place of the enemy's next battle. 1. The movement of the enemy forces currently in action; 2. Now the enemy's reconnaissance and attack on my attack 3. The relationship between the Allied Summit and the next battle; 4. The relationship between the military meeting and the next battle; 5. The deployment of enemy submarines, especially the dynamics of submarines that do not seem to undertake the task of destroying our sea lines of communication; 6. The movement of supply troops (mainly merchant ships) from the continental United States to Hawaii and the front; 7. The movement of aircraft flying from the west coast of the United States (mainly in the San Francisco area) to Hawaii (mainly in the case of air transport); 8. The character of the combat unit commander; 9. The relationship between the Memorial Day (including Japan and the United States) and the war; 10. The relationship between weather (typhoons, discontinuities, etc.) and operations. Let me give you an example. When the enemy lands on our stronghold, he often adopts extremely reasonable tactics of frontal attack.That is: use aircraft for reconnaissance (terrain, defensive situation, etc.), and then carry out attacks aimed at weakening the defensive forces (mainly using aircraft), and after these results are affirmed, attack with a force that greatly exceeds our absolute advantage.Therefore, we also use reasonable methods to judge the enemy's intentions.As a measure of judgment, we made a paper pattern (like a sock), marked the date on the horizontal axis of the coordinate paper, and marked the number of enemy air strikes on the vertical axis. After drawing, connect the points stand up.This kind of paper pattern is like the Makin Island type, Tarawa type, Saipan Island type, etc., and many types can be found from the practice of past landing operations. From this kind of paper, select the one that is most similar to the current situation of the enemy's air strikes, and compare them, so that the enemy's landing time can be estimated ten days or even two weeks ago.Needless to say, in this case it is necessary to make a comprehensive judgment with reference to all other relevant information.