Chapter 33 2.3 Results of intelligence operations

In order to control the error of the results of intelligence work against the United States within 20%, we actively and conscientiously collect valuable intelligence data, improve work, improve work efficiency, and enrich and expand the organization.But how much has been achieved? Tokyo is not only very far away from the United States, but also very far away from the Pacific battlefield. In addition, under the harsh conditions of wartime, we had to endure the difficulties brought about by very limited intelligence data and very simple intelligence agencies.So, at a desk in Tokyo, expecting excellent grades is an unrealistic luxury in itself.However, judging from the results of checking various materials after the war, it can be considered that the expected results were generally achieved within 20% of the error.

Now, let's check our homework grades with a few examples. Judging the time for the United States to formally counterattack Japan In November 1942, the Soviet Red Army went on the offensive. The German Sixth Army under the command of Marshal Paulus could not withstand the fierce attack of the Soviet Red Army. A report: We have fought to the last soldier.Long live Germany has finally surrendered to the Soviets. In this way, the victory or defeat of the Stalingrad offensive and defensive battle between the German and Soviet armies on the banks of the Volga River became a turning point in the German-Soviet war and even the European war.

The turning point in the Pacific War was the Battle of Midway in June 1942, eight months earlier. The then British Prime Minister Winston Churchill recalled the Battle of Midway: This glorious victory of the United States is of great significance not only to the United States, but also to all the allied countries. The result of this naval battle completely reversed Japan's dominance in the Pacific Ocean.The excellence of the United States Navy, Air Force and people shines brightly. At that time, the author was still in the United States, and the first time I learned about the Midway naval battle was on June 11, shortly after the battle.We spent about half a year in detention in the United States, and we were released on this day. We boarded the exchange ship Gripsholm (a Swedish ship chartered by the US Maritime Commission) anchored in New York Harbor, and returned to our dear motherland.

On the deck, the author deeply felt an unusual atmosphere.The sailors of the coastal guard who were ordered to guard the ship exchange put aside their tasks, looked at the newspapers in their hands, and chatted happily.The author took a peek at the newspaper, and the photos posted on it resembled the Japanese aircraft carrier I was familiar with.Immediately, I felt that this was a big deal, so I made a quick move, bought a waitress on the ship with blond hair typical of Nordic people, and got the newspaper. Newspapers reported the details of the Midway naval battle, and published large-scale photos of our burning aircraft carrier.No matter how you look at it from a partial perspective, the failure of the Japanese fleet seems to be an undisguised fact.This is terrible!Thinking of the future of war, the joy of returning home evaporated.No, you cannot stand by and watch.I really want to rush back one day earlier, one moment earlier, to save the motherland from peril!

I complained about the slow speed of the boat along the way. On August 20, I finally finished the 30,000-kilometer journey across the three major oceans of the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and set foot on the land of the motherland.However, the author's desire to fight in the frontline troops was completely defeated, and the military command assigned to Tokyo continued to engage in intelligence work against the United States. On August 7, as the first step in the counterattack against Japan, the US military landed on Guadalcanal Island.From then on, until February 7, 1943, when our army abandoned the island, during this six months, the offensive and defensive battles surrounding Guadalcanal Island and the weakening of the combat capability to attack Rabaul Island in the southeastern Pacific Ocean, The two sides fought desperately repeatedly on land, sea and air.

However, from the overall perspective of the Pacific War, this counter-offensive route of the US military is only secondary.Since the Spanish-American War in 1898, the U.S. Navy’s traditional main counterattack route against Japan has been to attack across the central Pacific Ocean.For the author who made the above judgment, one of the most concerned things is the time when the US military launched this main attack. The biggest factor that will determine this time will be the strength of the US aircraft carrier force that can undertake operations in the Pacific.When the U.S. military attacks from the central Pacific Ocean, the indispensable prerequisite must be: weaken the aviation force of our land base, and keep an aircraft carrier stronger than ours, in case the fleet needs to fight a decisive battle.Therefore, the author believes that accurately grasping the construction status of US aircraft carriers is the key to judging when the US military launched its main attack.

Although the US aircraft carrier survived the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the light aircraft carrier USS Langley in August 1942, the regular aircraft carrier USS Lexington in the Battle of Coral (May 1942), and the USS Yorktown In the Battle of Midway, the Wasp and the Hornet were sunk by me successively in the South Pacific Battle (October 1942).All that remained were the two Granny aircraft carriers, the Saratoga and the Enterprise. On the other hand, during the Battle of Midway Island in June 1942, the U.S. Navy adopted the aircraft carrier first principle and emphasized the importance of aircraft carriers over battleships. Work on the construction of the Tana-type super-large battleship.Subsequently, in August of the same year, the number of Essex-type aircraft carriers to be built was greatly increased, and at the same time, every effort was made to speed up the construction process.

We judge the construction status of US aircraft carriers according to the following principles (the same is true for judging other ship types): 1. The first phase of operations: investigations on shipbuilding plans and shipbuilding capabilities. 1. Shipbuilding plan According to reports from the US 2. Shipbuilding capability Based on the detailed investigation before the start of the war, and revised according to the information obtained later, judge the time required for the following items: 1. From construction to launch 2. From launch to service 3. From service to the end of the official sea trial

4. The preparation time from the end of the official sea trial to the battle 5. Set sail from the construction site to arrive at Pearl Harbor 6. Time to Prepare for Operation at Pearl Harbor 7. From the departure of Pearl Harbor to the arrival at the combat sea area 2. The second stage of work: shipbuilding on the table (drawing charts) According to the construction plan, the keels were installed on each berth of the shipyard marked on the paper that could build aircraft carriers, and the next step was carried out according to the time required for shipbuilding obtained in the first stage of work, and the aircraft carriers that could participate in the war against Japan were speculated.

3. The third stage of work: checking and correcting the results of the work Check the results of the previous operations against the following items, and correct the errors of the basic elements.Whenever new materials are obtained, this is repeated, and the error of the work will gradually decrease. 1. Enemy reports The enlistment of major ships is mostly announced publicly (comprehensive reports for small ships are made every once in a while). 2. Information about captives A lot of important information can be obtained. When building a new ship, many of them can check the time of various projects in the second stage of operation.

Through the above operations, we have made inferences about the construction status of US aircraft carriers, as shown in the fourth table at the end of this book. As a result, our estimates of the pace of U.S. aircraft carrier construction are as follows: regular aircraft carriers are estimated to be 1.7 months behind the actual average, and cruiser aircraft carriers are estimated to be 2.4 months behind the actual average.Of course, not one was missed. We judged that the U.S. Navy would need at least six full-fledged aircraft carriers (and, if possible, a considerable number of cruiser carriers) in order to launch a major attack from the central Pacific, and we sought to see how long it would take to build them. Considering the time from enlistment to the combat sea area, we judged that by the end of 1943, besides the two aircraft carriers USS Saratoga and USS Enterprise already in the Pacific Ocean, there were four other aircraft carriers available for combat. There are six new regular aircraft carriers (USS Yorktown II, USS Lexington II, USS Essex, and USS Bunker Hill), and six new cruiser aircraft carriers (USS Independence, USS Princeton, USS Bay USS Lowood, USS Corppens, USS Monterey and USS Capote), these aircraft carriers will be organized into three mission groups (each mission group will consist of two regular aircraft carriers and two cruiser aircraft carriers). That is to say, in the summer of 1943, we judged that by the end of the same year, the US military would probably begin its main offensive from the central Pacific. The Operation Department of the base camp is also struggling to judge which direction the enemy's main offensive will be directed.Minoru Genada, a member of the combat department at the time, wrote in his book "The History of the Naval Air Force (Battle Chapter)": The battle was most intense in the southeast direction, that is, the area from Solomon to New Guinea.As far as the current situation is concerned, this is the enemy's main attack.Many people think that even in the future, this direction is also the focus.But there are also a few people who believe that the enemy's main attack will come from the north. Another powerful judgment is that the British and American forces will attack us from the Indian Ocean.The author (Genda) also believes that this possibility is relatively high. In 1943, he went to the Dutch East Indies three times to conduct on-site inspections.The basis for this judgment is that the defense in this area is weak, and that Japan relies almost entirely on the supply of raw materials needed for the war. Regarding the above three judgments, Lieutenant Mimatsu of the Third Department of the Military Command (Intelligence Department) firmly advocated that the United States should carry out the main attack from the central Pacific Ocean, and would not yield a single step.His basis is: the U.S. military is implementing a huge shipbuilding program, the main force of which is the Essex-type aircraft carrier.The U.S. military will never leave this powerful aircraft carrier force unused.However, if one wants to make full use of large mobile force groups, considering conditions such as weather, terrain, and the width of the combat sea area, there is no other place except the central Pacific Ocean.Therefore, as soon as the enemy completes the preparations for the mobile force, he will immediately launch an offensive against our inner Nanyang Islands.Zhongzuo Mimatsu's judgment was completely correct, and it turned out to be a fact in less than half a year. In fact, the first step of the US military's main offensive was to attack the Gilbert Islands, which was on November 20, 1943.The US aircraft carrier force, as we infer, is six regular aircraft carriers and six cruiser aircraft carriers, and even the names of the ships are exactly the same. Nimitz, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet at the time, wrote in his book "Great War": the newly built high-speed regular aircraft carriers Essex, York City, Lexington, Bunker Hill, and the high-speed cruiser Princeton USS Bellowwood, USS Monterey, USS Coppens, USS Independence and the veteran aircraft carriers in the Pacific Ocean, USS Enterprise and USS Saratoga.According to Morrison's "A History of American Naval Combat in World War II", the aircraft carrier force organization is divided into the following four groups: 50‧1 Task Group Regular aircraft carriers USS Yorktown, USS Lexington Cruiser aircraft carrier USS Colpens 50‧Task Group 50.2 Regular aircraft carrier USS Enterprise Cruiser aircraft carriers USS Belleau Wood, USS Monterey The 50‧3 Task Group Regular aircraft carriers HMS Essex, Bunker Hill USS Independence The Fifth ○‧Fourth Task Group Regular aircraft carrier USS Saratoga USS Princeton