Chapter 22 Volume 1, Chapter 18, Winter in Munich

POLAND AND HUNGARY: TREATMENT TO LOCK UK LIFE Mr Cooper's Resignation Speech Debate on Munich Hitler's Speech on October 9th British Cabinet Dilemma: Rearmament or Peaceful General Election Correspondence with Mr Cooper's Dismemberment of Prime Minister's of the Czech Republic Powers and Responsibilities His approach to Italy and his visit to Paris in November 1938 Mr. Bonnet's attitude towards Germany The consequences of Munich The actual and projected decline in the Anglo-French combined forces The improvement of the British Air Force situation 1938 Air power of Great Britain and Germany from 1940 to 1938 Germany's population increased by 10 million.

On September 30 Czechoslovakia capitulated to the Munich resolution.They said they wanted to have their protests against a resolution they were not a part of taking on record before the world.President Benes resigned because he may have become an obstacle to the development that the new country must adapt to.He left Czechoslovakia and lived in England.The country of Czech Republic was disintegrated according to the agreement, but the vultures who robbed and ate human flesh were not limited to Germany.Immediately following the Munich agreement on September 30, Poland issued an ultimatum to the Czech Republic within a twenty-four-hour limit, demanding the immediate cession of the Teschen border area to it.At this time, the Czech Republic could no longer resist such harsh demands.

The heroic qualities of the Polish nation do not blind us to their mistakes, which have cost them incalculable suffering over the centuries.We see them restored in 1919, after many generations of partition and enslavement, to an independent republic and one of the leading states of Europe, thanks to the victory of the Western Entente.Now, in 1938, because of an unimportant special issue, it actually alienated the friendly countries such as France, Britain, and the United States that once helped it to regain its national unity. I feel very much needed.We see them eager to snatch their own share from the plundered and destroyed Czechoslovakia while the mighty Germany is eyeing them.At this critical moment, they closed the door in front of the British and French ambassadors. The British and French ambassadors asked to see the Polish foreign minister but were unable to get one.This people, with all its heroic qualities in some individuals, its high endowment, its heroic courage, and its charms, has repeatedly shown in every sphere of government life the indelible errors of which it is a rare event in the history of Europe. A puzzling event, but also a tragedy.Today, the Polish people are under new bondage, and our hearts are with them.We believe that they will not lack the strength to constantly rise up against tyranny, and they will also face the pain they encounter with indomitable spirit.We look forward to the dawn of the future.

Hungary also virtually joined the discussions in Munich.At the end of August 1938, Horthy visited Germany, but Hitler maintained an extremely cautious attitude towards him.On the afternoon of August 23, Hitler did not reveal the day on which he planned to attack the Czech Republic, although he had a long conversation with the Hungarian regent.He himself does not know the time.Anyone who wants to eat together has to help out by cooking together.But the time for the meal was not announced.But now, the time for Hungary to make their request has arrived. In these later days, after all these devastated years, it is indeed not easy to describe to the next generation the outburst of anger in England over the Munich agreement.In the Conservative Party, I have never seen such a divergence of opinion among families and friends who were otherwise in close contact with each other.Men and women who had always been friendly to one another through party affiliation, social ties, and family ties now glared at each other with contemptuous emotion.

This was a problem that could not be solved by the cheering crowd that cheered Chamberlain as he entered the city from the airport or blocked Downing Street and its aisles, not even the desperate efforts of the parliamentary leaders or members of the ruling party.We were a minority at the time and ignored the cynicism directed at us by supporters of the government.The cabinet was fundamentally shaken, but since it happened, they had to remain united.Only one cabinet member stood up.Mr. Cooper, Secretary of the Admiralty, resigned from his important post; he had made a decision to mobilize the fleet, which had greatly enhanced the Admiralty.Just when Chamberlain was able to absolutely control public opinion, he rushed from the cheering crowd and publicly announced that he totally disapproved of the Prime Minister's approach.

The House of Commons had a day of debate on the events in Munich.At the start of the debate, Mr Cooper delivered his resignation speech.It is a wonderful thing in our parliamentary life.His demeanor was serene, and he did not need to speak a script; during the forty minutes he spoke, the majority of the party who opposed him listened attentively.At this time, it is easy to win cheers from the Liberal and Labor parties, which are fiercely opposed to the government.But within the Conservative Party, it's a divisive debate.Some of the truths he presented deserve to be recorded here: I beg my colleagues not to look at this question from the point of view of Czechoslovakia, from the strategically difficult position of that small country.We might as well say to ourselves that one day there will be a war in Europe due to the invasion of Czechoslovakia;There is no doubt on which side we will fight.The whole world should know this, it will give those who are ready to disturb the peace a reason to stop

Mr Chamberlain then made his final appeal on Wednesday morning.For the first time in all four weeks of negotiations, Herr Hitler was ready to back down an inch, maybe a foot, at any rate to some extent to the British proposal.But I would remind the House of Commons that the first message Hitler received that morning was not a letter from the Chancellor.As early as dawn, he had been informed of the mobilization of the British fleet.A man's motives are unknown; and which of these two pieces of news most influenced him to agree to the trip to Munich we may never know.But we know that he never backed down in the past, and now he's backing down.I have been urging fleet mobilization for days.I used to think that the language of such actions was easier for Hitler to understand than the cautious and reserved rhetoric of diplomacy or the conditional clauses of official documents.I had urged that steps like this mobilization be taken before the end of August, before the Prime Minister left for Berchtesgaden.I have suggested that such steps should be carried out simultaneously with Sir Wilson's dispatch to Germany.I recall the Prime Minister saying that doing so would certainly undermine Sir Wilson's mission, which I thought would enable his mission to succeed.

Such is the deep divide between the Prime Minister and myself all these days.The Prime Minister always believed that Hitler should be dealt with with tactful and reasonable words.I think that using violent language can move him more. The chancellor had no doubts in Herr Hitler's goodwill and in what he said.Although Mr. Hitler promised to abide by the Locarno Convention when he broke the Treaty of Versailles; When he entered Austria, he authorized his henchmen to give authoritative assurances that he would no longer interfere in the affairs of Czechoslovakia.This was less than six months ago, and yet the Prime Minister still believes in Hitler's faith!

This long debate can well explain the emotional excitement and the seriousness of the problem at that time.I remember very well that when I said in my speech that we had suffered a complete and complete defeat, the storm of protests caused me to pause for a moment before I could continue.Mr. Chamberlain's indomitable efforts to maintain the peace, and his personal strength, have been awe-inspiring.But here, it is necessary to describe a series of miscalculations and judgments he made about people and things, and based on which he took wrong actions.As to his motives, there is no doubt; and the line he took required the highest degree of spiritual courage to execute.On this point I praised him two years later in a posthumous speech.Among the important figures in the Conservative Party there were serious differences without disrespect for one another, and in most cases personal relations were at best temporarily affected.There is a common understanding between us.The two opposition parties, Labor and the Liberals, who are now clamoring for action, have never missed an opportunity to oppose and criticize even mild compromise defense measures taken by the government, hoping to win the hearts of the people.

In addition, the government can make a serious practical reason, although it does not give them credit for saying it.No one can deny that we are seriously lacking in war preparations.Who could prove this more actively than me and my friends?Britain let its air power fall far behind Germany.All our weak links remain undefended.The world's largest cities and population centers are defended with a hundred or so anti-aircraft guns, and most of the gunners are poorly trained.If Hitler was honest and a lasting peace was achieved, then Mr. Chamberlain was right.If, unfortunately, he has been deceived, we shall at least have a breathing space to make up for the worst of negligence.These considerations, and the sense of relief felt by the general population at having temporarily avoided the dreadful war, drew hearty sympathy from the supporters of the government.By 366 votes to 144, the House of Commons approved the policy of preventing war adopted by His Majesty's Government during the recent crisis.The thirty or forty Conservatives who dissented had no choice but to express their opposition by abstaining from the vote.We did so unanimously and formally.

In my speech I said: In this long debate we need not waste time studying the differences between the positions reached at Berchtesgaden, at Godesberg, and at Munich.If this Court will allow me to vary a metaphor, I may explain it succinctly.He starts by pointing a pistol at you and wants you to give him a pound.After giving all the photos, he pointed the gun at you again and demanded two pounds.In the end, the dictator promised £1, seventeen and sixpence upfront, and you promised to pay the rest later. Never has anyone pursued peace more resolutely and uncompromisingly than the Prime Minister. Everyone knows this.Never before has there been such a strong and unrelenting determination to preserve and secure the peace.Even so, I don't quite understand how, if Britain and France were really prepared to sacrifice Czechoslovakia all along, how could they be in such a great danger of being involved in a war with Germany this time?With regard to the terms the Prime Minister brings back, I believe that an agreement could easily be reached through normal diplomatic channels sometime in the summer.What I am saying is that I believe that if the Czechs were left to deal with it themselves and it was shown that they could not get aid from the West, they might have been able to get better than what they have been through Conditions, they will never have worse conditions than they are now. It's passed.Silent, mournful, abandoned, fragmented Czechoslovakia is already in darkness.For a long time, it has followed France's leadership and policies, and stood with France, which has caused it to suffer in every way I cannot bear it if our country is controlled by Nazi Germany, falls into its sphere of influence, is at its beck and call, or if our existence becomes dependent on its kindness and grace.In order to prevent this, I have endeavored to urge the Government, first of all, to establish, in time, an air force stronger than that of any power whose attack power can reach its own shores; The collective forces of the nation must be assembled; and thirdly, within the framework of the Covenant of Nations, alliances and military treaties will be made, so that the pooling of forces will at any rate at least check the advance of the nation.But all efforts were in vain. Every claim has been undermined and dismissed by plausible excuses. Our loyal and brave people, who are ready to do their duty at any cost, never flinched from the tension of last week.I don't blame them for their spontaneous gleeful relief at knowing that they won't have to suffer for a while; but they ought to know the truth of the matter.They should know that our defense has serious negligence and shortcomings; they should know that we have suffered a defeat without a war, the consequences of which will affect us deeply; Dreadful milestones The balance of Europe has been upset; the Western democracies have now heard the dreadful words: You have weighed in the scales and found the weight insufficient.Don't think that this matter will end here, this is just the first step in reckoning.This is just the first sip, the first taste of the bitter wine that will be handed to us every year.Unless we pick up our spirits and regain our fighting spirit, we will not be able to rise up again and fight for freedom as we have always done. Hitler could only express indifference towards the good intentions of the British and the sincere gratitude of the British for the Anglo-German peace that had been achieved in Munich.On October 9, less than a fortnight after he had signed the declaration of mutual friendship that Chamberlain had urged to accept, he said in a speech in Saarbrücken: The politicians on our side demand peace, but the country they rule and the domestic political system may make them lose their official positions at any time and be replaced by others who are not enthusiastic about peace.This kind of person is already there waiting.In England, as long as Mr. Cooper, Mr. Eden or Mr. Churchill is in power instead of Mr. Chamberlain, we can fully know that the purpose of these people is to start a new world war immediately.They don't hide it, they admit it openly.Moreover, we know that now, as in the past, there lurks behind it the menacing antagonistic role of the Jewish International, established and institutionalized in a Bolshevized country.We also know of a certain international news agency that lives off lies and slander.This makes us have to redouble our vigilance and never forget to defend our country.Keep the peace at all times, but don't relax for a moment, prepare yourself. I have therefore resolved to intensify our western fortifications with greater efforts, as announced in my Nuremberg speech.I shall now incorporate into the fortifications the two districts which hitherto remain in front of our fortifications, the districts of Aachen (Ex-la-Chapelle) and Saarbrücken. He added: It would be a good thing if the English people gradually lost the pomp they had inherited from the days of the Treaty of Versailles.We can no longer bear the ‧discipline‧teaching of women.It would be inappropriate for British politicians to ask about the fate of Germans in Germany, or of others to whom Germany belongs.For our part, we will not bother about British affairs either.In fact, the world outside Germany should very well mind their own domestic affairs, or, for example, mind the affairs of Palestine. As the sense of relief from the Munich agreement faded, Mr Chamberlain and his government found themselves facing a serious dilemma.The Prime Minister once said: I believe this is the peace of our time.But most of his colleagues hope to use our times to rearm as quickly as possible.On this point, the cabinet was divided.The vigilance aroused by the Munich crisis and the exposed weaknesses of our defenses, especially in the area of ​​anti-aircraft guns, called for a vigorous rearmament, but, on the other hand, Hitler was greatly shaken by this sentiment.He may have found an excuse to say: Is this an attitude of trust and friendliness towards our Munich agreement?If we're friends and you trust us, why are you rearmamenting?Let me keep my arms, and you keep your trust in me.This view, from the material before Parliament, seems well founded, but not convincing.At that time there was a strong and surging sentiment in the country demanding a major rearmament. Naturally, this was attacked by the German government and the newspapers it inspired.However, public opinion across the UK is unquestionable.On the one hand, they were deeply grateful that the Prime Minister had saved them from the scourge of war, and cheered the slogan of peace; on the other hand, they felt the need for armaments.All branches of the military made demands, all referring to the worrying serious lack of armaments exposed in the crisis.The cabinet agreed on a compromise based on the principle of being as prepared as possible without taking massive measures that would disrupt domestic trade or irritate Germany and Italy. Mr. Chamberlain is undoubtedly to his credit for resisting the temptation and pressure for a general election after Munich.If an election is held at this time, it will only cause more confusion.Yet for those Conservatives who had criticized the Munich agreement and refused to vote for it, that winter was anxious and frustrating.Each of us, in our respective constituencies, is under attack from the Conservative Party branch.There were many who became our ardent supporters a year later and were actively campaigning against us.In my constituency, Epping, the development of the situation made it necessary for me to make a clear statement that if the local party passed a resolution to impeach me, I would immediately resign my seat in the House of Commons and take another seat to fill the vacancy. Election campaign.But my loyal and tireless comrade-in-arms and chairman Sir Hawkey and a group of resolute people around him gave me strong support, fighting for every inch of ground; after a hard struggle, they finally At a decisive meeting of the party headquarters, I received a three-to-two vote of confidence in this dark hour.It's been a bleak winter. In November we had another debate on defense.I gave a long speech. Mr. Cooper to Mr. Churchill November 19, 1938 I am sorry to hear that you were offended by my mention of you in my speech last Thursday.I don't know why you are doing this.I'm just saying that when the Prime Minister brought up the events of 1914, he meant to show that after military mobilization, no matter what inspections, some shortcomings and deficiencies can always be found, so I think your accusation against him, I'm afraid He is unacceptable.Of course I could have never mentioned you at all, but I just think that citing what other people have said in the past as a basis for your own statement often has good effect in debates.Besides, on Thursday, my situation was not so simple.Your great slamming speech, which I greatly admire and admire, is an attack on the performance of the government for the past three years. During this three-year period, except for the last six weeks, I was a member of the government.So it's hard to hope that I'll agree with you enough to vote up.However, whether or not you have good reason to feel offended by me, I am always sorry for offending you, and please forgive me. For our association and friendship, as well as your counsel, are very dear to me. Mr. Churchill to Mr. Cooper November 22, 1938 I am very happy to hear from you, thank you very much.It would be a big mistake for our small group of friends to blame each other under the circumstances.The only principle is to help each other as much as possible, not to hurt each other and not to let the fisherman benefit.You are good with words, and it should be easy to state your position without showing that there is a difference of opinion between us.I abide by this rule.Your speech is certainly justifiable, but your answering me off topic has caused some of my friends to wonder whether you have any intention in doing so, such as trying to isolate me as much as possible from other Conservatives who are opposed to the government. .I don't think so myself.Your tactful letter has completely relieved me.We are so few in number, our political enemies are so many, and our goals are so important, we cannot under any circumstances weaken each other. I think that some parts of your speeches I have heard, especially your enumeration of the disasters we have suffered during the last three years, are really excellent.I don't know how you can give such a complete story without a script. I am very sorry for this debate.Chamberlain is now free of all concerns and safe and sound.Munich is a thing of the past; deficiencies in defense are forgotten.Until now, no serious effort has been made in defense armaments.The respite time bought at a terrible price will also be wasted.My worries about these affairs of state made me appear very rude when you offered to dine with me, when I did not know what the opening paragraph of your speech was about. But no matter what, you can always rely on your sincere friend. On November 1, an insignificant man, Dr. Hacha, was elected to fill the presidency of the remnant of Czechoslovakia.A new government took office in Prague. The foreign minister of this helpless government said: The general situation in Europe and the world makes it impossible for us to hope for a period of tranquility in the near future.Hitler had the same idea.Germany officially apportioned the loot in early November.Poland took Teschen with peace of mind.The Slovaks, who had been used as pawns by Germany on the chessboard, gained a precarious autonomy.Hungary sacrificed Slovakia and also got a piece of meat.When the British House of Commons raised these consequences of Munich, Mr. Chamberlain explained that the international guarantees offered by Britain and France to Czechoslovakia after the Munich Agreement were only based on the assumption that the country was invaded without cause, and did not involve the country's existing borders.What we are doing now, he said with detachment, is witnessing the readjustment of the borders established by the Treaty of Versailles.I don't know if the people who drew these borders thought that once they were drawn they never changed.I don't quite believe they think so. It may occur to them that these boundaries are inevitably subject to adjustment from time to time.It is inconceivable to think of these men as extraordinary supermen, whose eyesight can determine the boundaries of permanent correctness.The question now is not whether these borders should be adjusted from time to time, but how to adjust them, whether through negotiations and discussions or through war.Adjustments are underway, and with regard to the situation on the Hungarian border, Czechoslovakia and Hungary have accepted arbitration between Germany and Italy to finalize the border line between the two countries.I think that's all I have to say about Czechoslovakia, but I'll have more to say soon. On November 17, 1938 I wrote: Everyone must admit that the policy that the Prime Minister is carrying out is the most decisive and extremely important.He had a firm view of what he was going to do and what was going to happen.He has his values; he has his opinions.He believed that a compromise with Messrs. Hitler and Messrs. Mussolini would settle Europe and the British Empire well.No one disputes his motives. No one doubted his confidence and courage.Apart from all that, he has the right to do what he thinks is best.Anyone who disagrees with the principles of our foreign policy, or with the facts and possibilities with which our country has to deal, is obliged to admit that we have absolutely no power to prevent him from using the means at his disposal. And method to follow the path he firmly believes in.He is willing to take responsibility; he has the right to take responsibility.In a relatively short period of time we shall know what the results of his plans will be for us. The Prime Minister believed that Hitler would not pursue further territorial expansion on the European continent; he believed that the conquest and annexation of the Czechoslovak Republic had satisfied the appetite of the Nazi government in Germany.He may hope to persuade the Conservative Party to agree to return to Germany all the Mandates now owned by the United Kingdom, or which are considered to be exactly the same as the Mandates.He believed that the recovery of Germany would lead to long-term friendly and stable relations between Britain and Germany.He also believed that the formation of such friendly relations would in no way diminish the essential solidarity of self-defense between us and the French Republic, which we both agreed upon and which must be preserved.Mr. Chamberlain was convinced that all this would lead to a broad agreement, to appease dissatisfied nations, and to achieve a lasting peace. But all of this is pure hope and speculation.We also have to think of a whole host of counterpossibilities.He may require us to suffer intolerable things; He may have to ask us to endure intolerable things.Besides, the other party may not have had the kind of goodwill and faith that inspired the Prime Minister in this difficult negotiation.The price we have to pay, or the price we are forced to pay, is high, and perhaps not enough.This price may also include the great damage and humiliation of the British Empire, but it cannot stop or divert the course of events on the European continent.It can only be delayed for a few months at most.By this time next year we will know whether the Chancellor is right about Herr Hitler and the German Nazi Party.By this time next year, we will know whether the appeasement policy has had the effect of appeasement, or whether it has stimulated the other side's more vicious ambitions. The only thing we can do at this time is to strengthen our resistance and our defenses, in case the Prime Minister is unfortunate enough to be wrong or deceived, so that we can survive the worst. Whatever he may think of peace in our time, Mr. Chamberlain has always believed that Italy and Germany must be separated.He has a definite opinion on it.He was hopeful that he had secured Hitler's friendship; to complete his project he must also win over Mussolini's Italy as a counterweight to a costly rapprochement with Germany.As he reconnects with the Italian dictator, he must pull France along with him.Let's all come to a common love.In the next chapter, we will study the results of this suggestion. At the end of November, the Prime Minister and Lord Halifax visit Paris.The French government agreed, but not enthusiastically, to the prime minister's proposal to visit Rome.However, the Prime Minister and Lord Halifax were pleased to know that France was preparing a statement to follow the example of the British statement on the future relationship between Britain and Germany signed by Chamberlain and Hitler in Munich.On November 27, 1938, in a letter sent by Mr. Bonnet to the French ambassador in Washington, this meaning of the French government was described.The letter said: During discussions in Paris yesterday, Mr. Neville Chamberlain and Lord Halifax expressed express satisfaction with a statement which they considered to be identical in character to the Anglo-German statement, which would be of great importance to the work of international détente. a direct contribution. [1] For this discussion, Ribbentrop took Dr. Schacht to Paris.The Germans wanted not only a friendly general statement, but also a concrete economic agreement.With regard to the former, they were rewarded and signed in Paris on December 6th, and as regards the latter, even M. Bonnet was unwilling to accept it, although he also wanted to be the founder of the Franco-German understanding. [1] "French Orange Book", pages 35 and 37. Ribbentrop's mission to Paris contained a further motive.Just as Chamberlain wished to drive a wedge between Rome and Berlin, so Hitler thought he could drive a wedge between Paris and London.On this matter Herr Bonnet's account of his conversation with Ribbentrop is interesting: With regard to Great Britain, I affirmed to Ribbentrop that the improvement of Anglo-German relations must be of great help to any development of a policy of détente in Europe which is also the principal aim of all German-French actions.The German foreign minister has tried to place the blame for the situation on the British government.He said that the British government, especially the British newspapers, seemed to have expressed some understanding at the end of the Munich incident, but then adopted a most disappointing attitude towards the Berlin government. Cooper, Churchill, Eden, Morrison, etc. increased their political opinions in parliament, as well as the comments of certain newspapers, which made Germany extremely indignant; and in Germany, no one could restrain the newspapers from responding to this.I stress once again the fundamental importance and unshakability of Anglo-French solidarity, and make it clear that in the long run a real improvement in German-French relations is inconceivable without a parallel improvement in Anglo-German relations . 【１】 [1] "French Orange Book" forty-third | forty-four pages. In the year following Munich there was debate as to whether Hitler or the Entente had grown faster.Many in Britain, who know the emptiness of our defenses, are relieved to see our Air Forces growing every month and Tornados and Spitfires approaching mass production.Although the continuous expansion of air squadrons, the increase of anti-aircraft guns and the accelerated deployment of wartime industry, these improvements may seem commendable, but they are insignificant when compared with the huge increase in German armaments.As mentioned earlier, the nationwide munitions production plan will take four years to complete: There is no production in the first year, only a small amount of products in the second year, batches of products in the third year, and mass production in the fourth year.But at present the preparations for war in Hitler's Germany are almost as intense and rapid as in wartime, and they have already reached the stage of the third or fourth year.The UK, on ​​the other hand, has only moved forward on a non-emergency basis, and on a much smaller scale.From 1938 to 1939, the total military expenditure of Great Britain amounted to 304 million pounds,[1] while that of Germany was at least 1.5 billion pounds.In the year preceding the war Germany's total munitions production was probably at least twice, or possibly more than twice, that of England and France combined, and some of its enormous tank factories were operating at full capacity. horsepower, all in production.So they keep getting far more weapons than we do. [1] £234 million in 1937-1938; £304 million in 1938-1939; £304 million in 1939-194 ○ £367 million for the year. With the conquest of Czechoslovakia, the Allies lost twenty-one regular divisions of the Czech army and fifteen to sixteen reserve divisions mobilized, as well as their mountain fortifications; Germany had to deploy the strength of thirty divisions, or the main force of Germany's fully trained mobile forces.According to the confessions of Generals Halder and Jodl when they were interrogated after the war, during the deployment of the Munich incident, there were only thirteen divisions of the German troops on the western front, and only five of them were regular troops on the front line.With the fall of Czechoslovakia we have undoubtedly lost the equivalent of thirty-five divisions. In addition, the Skoda Arsenal in the Czech Republic, the second most important armory in Central Europe, was also ceded to the other party.The output of this factory between August 1938 and September 1939 was almost equal to the actual output of British arsenals during the same period.At a time when all of Germany was working intensely, almost as hard as it had been in wartime conditions, French workers had already won in 1936 the long-desired forty-hour week. Even more unfortunate, the relative strength of the French and German armies has changed.Since 1938, the German Army has not only increased in number and establishment and the accumulation of reserve troops every month, but also has improved in quality and proficiency every month.With the continuous expansion of equipment, the training of officers and soldiers and the technical proficiency of ordinary officers and soldiers have also been progressing day by day.The French Army has not had the same progress and expansion.It is surpassed by Germany in every respect.In 1935, France could have invaded and reoccupied Germany without major fighting, even without the aid of the former Entente.到一九三六年，法國的壓倒優勢的實力還不至於成為疑問。我們現在根據德國方面的透露，這種情況到一九三八年仍然存在。德國最高統帥部正因為知道了它們自己的弱點，所以才曾極力阻撓希特勒採取各種行動，但正是這些成功的行動使希特勒聲望增高。到我們現在正在探討的慕尼黑事件後的這一年內，德國陸軍雖然在有訓練的後備隊這個方面仍較法國為弱，但它的效率已達到很高的程度。而且由於軍隊的基礎在於人口，而德國的人口又比法國多一倍，所以德國軍隊不論按照任何標準都將勝過法國，這只是時間問題而已。以軍隊的士氣來說，德國人也是佔上風的。拋棄盟國，尤其是害怕戰爭，就會使任何一支軍隊的士氣被削弱。 被迫屈服之感使官兵精神沮喪。在德國方面，信心、成功和力量日益增強之感，都激發了這個民族的戰鬥本能，而法國卻自認虛弱，使法國各級官兵大為喪氣。 不過，在一個重要方面，我們開始趕上德國，使我們的地位有所改善。在一九三八年，用旋風式和後來以噴火式等新式戰鬥機替換如鬥士式一類舊式雙翼戰鬥機的過程還剛剛開始。一九三八年九月，我們只有五個中隊配備了旋風式戰鬥機。而且，舊式飛機的儲存和零件，因為此後不能使用，只好拋棄。在新式戰鬥機的裝備上，德國遠遠走在我們的前面，他們已有為數甚多的米式一百零九飛機，這是我們的舊式飛機無法與之相比的。在一九三九年整整一年中，由於我們有更多的配備新式飛機的中隊，我們的情況有所改善。在那年的七月分，我們一共有二十六個新式戰鬥機中隊，每架飛機裝配八挺機關鎗；只是因為時間關係還沒有建立大規模的儲存和替換零件。到一九四○年七月不列顛空戰時，我們可以用來作戰的新式戰鬥機一般有四十七個中隊。 在德國方面，其實力增加的數字如下： 一九三八年轟炸機一，四百六十六架戰鬥機九百二十架 一九三九年轟炸機一，五百五十三架戰鬥機一，零九十架 一九四○年轟炸機一，五百五十八架戰鬥機一，二百九十架 德國空軍的擴充，無論在數量上和質量上，事實上早在戰爭開始以前大部分已經完成了。我們的努力，比起他們遲了差不多兩年。在一九三九年到一九四○年間，他們只增加百分之二十，而我們在現代戰鬥機方面增加百分之八十。一九三八年，我們在質量上差得太遠，到了一九三九年，雖然對於這種不均衡的狀況，我們曾努力補上了一些，但在一九四○年正式同德國較量時我們還是不行。 在一九三八年，倫敦是有可能遭受空襲的，我們對此竟毫無準備，實屬可悲。不過，除非德國佔領了法國和荷蘭、比利時低地國家，取得了迫近我國海岸的必要基地，否則，決定性的不列顛空戰是不可能發生的。因為，沒有這些基地，他們就不能使用在當時航程尚短的戰鬥機來為他們的轟炸機護航。而在一九三八年或一九三九年，德軍要擊敗法軍還是不可能的。 德國用來突破法國陣線的大規模坦克的生產，是直到一九四○年起才開始的；法軍在西線仍佔優勢，而東線的波蘭又尚未征服以前，德國當然不能像後來在法國被迫投降後的情形那樣，集中全部空軍力量來對付英國。這還沒有把俄國的態度或捷克斯洛伐克可能實行的抵抗估計在內。我覺得應該把這個時期空軍實力的對比的數字提出來，但這些數字無論如何都不能改變我所寫的結論。 據說我們因慕尼黑事件獲得了一年的喘息時間，但根據以上所有的理由，英法兩國同希特勒德國的對比，卻遠較慕尼黑危機時惡劣得多。 最後還有一個令人吃驚的事實：在一九三八年一年內，希特勒把六百七十五萬奧地利人，三百五十萬蘇台德人，總數在一千萬人以上的居民、勞苦大眾和士兵並入德國，置於他的專制統治之下。毫無疑問，這個可怕的力量對比是轉而有利於他的。